"What has produced can reproduce (...) to want to forget this threat, is ultimately to make it possible.
Since 25% of the French, in surveys, say that they do not exclude to vote Jean-Marie the PEN, that can mean that indeed, it can carry out a score very close to that of 2002, even more. From there, all is possible.
Most polls show Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy each carrying around 30% of the votes in the first round. However, these polls include a smaller number of candidates than the final ballot will likely include, which may cause an overestimation in the initial support for Royal and Sarkozy. Le Pen came on strong several weeks ago with poll numbers as high as 17%, but recent surveys show his support has dropped somewhat.
Several French articles translated on GalliaWatch show that Le Pen is also facing a barrage of infighting over his new campaign posters. Le Pen is attempting to show his inclusive side by including pictures of North Africans on his posters, but this clashes somewhat sharply with his strong anti-immigrant and nationalistic message.
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