Sunday, December 3, 2006

Sarkozy and Royal dead even

A new poll released by IFOP shows Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal dead even with 50-50% of the vote in a second round matchup. In the first round, Segolene would receive 31%, Sarkozy 30%, far-right candidate Le Pen 12%, and UDF Francois Bayrou 9%. This is slightly better news for Sarkozy, who has appeared to slip in recent polls, and who feared that the momentum that propelled Royal to win her primary could carry over into the general campaign. If Le Pen is still looking at polls while on vacation this poll wouldn't cheer him up, for this is a sharp decline from his high of 17% reported a week or so ago. Francois Bayrou, who announced his candidacy yesterday, has improved several points since that last batch of polls.

Interestingly, Le Monde wrote of another poll carried out by SCA over who should win the UMP presidential nomination. While Sarkozy received 82% from party supporters, he received only 46% from the general population, followed by 33% from Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie and 25% for PM Dominique du Villepin. I wonder if those Socialists polled supported the candidate they liked best or the one they thought they could most easily defeat.

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