The last several weeks of polling has shown a damaged Segolene Royal, but one still capable of maintaining 48-49% of the second round vote. Now she should be worried. A new poll by Ipsos says that the UMP's Nicolas Sarkozy would defeat Royal 54% to 46% in the second round, the largest window of victory seen so far. He has also gained in the first round, nearly 10% above Royal, or 35% of the vote.
Other telling figures show how voters for third candidate would vote in the second round. According to this poll, a full 74% of Francois Bayoru's supporters would vote for Sarkozy, leaving only 26% for Royal. Bayrou has been gaining ground, and now commands 11-12% of the first round in most polls, a worrying trend if Royal wants to attract more centrist voters.
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