Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Bayrou reaches new height

UDF candidate Francois Bayrou reached new heights today in an IFOP poll that shows he would collect 19% of the vote in the first round, just 6.5% behind Segolene Royal in the same poll.

Last night Bayrou followed in Sarkozy's and Royal's footsteps by appearing on the French TV show "J'ai une question à vous poser".

"I have the certainty that with the UMP system against the PS (system) it was impossible to leave the dead end in which France finds itself. If one wants to do concrete (things), it is necessary to make people of different camps work together."

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whiteknight said...

Hey Boz, I've been watching Bayrou's charge with interest. If he did make it through to the 2nd round, how much of an impact would the relatively small size of the UDF party machine - compared to the UMP (or indeed the PS) - have on his chances?

Boz said...

Most polls give him a several point lead on either Royal or Sarkozy in the second round. Unfortunately I don't know exactly how much of a difference the smaller party infastructure would have, but because there are no TV commercials, money probably plays a lesser role than in US campaigns.

It also will likely depend on the reaction to the upset. If Royal lost, there could be a big push in the left-wing to ensure that Sarkozy loses, no matter who the alternative. Although Royal is polling even worse against Bayrou, she would likely move quickly to the center if it was her v. him. Again it would be an uphill fight, but considering she (and Sarkozy for that matter) are so much more charismatic, it is likely that the current polls are overstating Bayrou's advantage.