Monday, February 19, 2007

Bayrou surge

In the last post I mentioned that the latest polls from late January said that UDF candidate Francois Bayrou would beat Segolene Royal in the second round, but lose narrowly to the UMP's Nicolas Sarkozy. Not any more.

In an IFOP poll taken from February 13 to 15, Francois Bayrou would beat Segolene Royal with 54%, and would also beat Nicolas Sarkozy with 52% if he faced either or them in the second round. He has also risen in the first round polls, up to 16%, but still below Royal's 25.5%. This information should be most worrying to Royal. Although she has trailed Sarkozy in the second round polls, it has always been assumed that she would get through the first round without too much difficulty. But with her campaign in shambles, the threat of another candidate at her heels will remove any luxury she had in the first round.

Ironically, Nicolas Sarkozy now must hope that Royal makes it into the second round, although I am ignorant of the actual implications of that in his campaign.

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Alex said...


I agree, the Bayrou emergence is pretty fabulous horserace-wise.

But Le Parisien decided NOT to run the second round poll results this morning displaying an emerging hesitation on behalf of news editors on how to handle this Bayrou thing.

Some argue that he's still only at 16 percent in the first round and that, as a centrist, he's mathematically bound to win the second round if he makes the first.

With Bayrou, it's only the first that matters, otherwise, as one editor put it on a chat show last night, he's just running for prime minister!

Boz said...

Thanks for the on-the-ground info!

Interestingly though, I believe I read that Royal is now below where Lionel Jospin was in the polls last election, and Bayrou keeps increasing as she falls. If she doesn't recover, I could imagine enough socialists and fringe-candidate supporters decide that they need a new safe alternative to Sarkozy, in which case Bayrou might have a chance.

shar said...

as a teacher in paris, i have to say, the candidature of Bayrou is looking more and more. the only reason i wouldn't vote for him would be out of fear of losing votes against sarko.
As a very ardent leftwinger, i'm very disappointed with the socialists program, and the lack of definition in segolene's program.
on the other hand bayrou, if you look at his program as stated on his site, presetns a lot of what i would have considered socialist ideas, and a much more acceptable foreign policy in mymind.
If he goes to the second round, whtehter against segolene or sarko, he will win.