Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Royal Bounce?

Despite her hyped platform speech this past Sunday, a poll taken a day later shows that Segolene Royal would still lose badly to Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round, with 46% and 54% respectively. She is also slipping in the first round, where at 26%, she is only 12% ahead of UDF candidate Francois Bayrou.

If there is any good news for Royal, it is that the power of her personality and the excitement it generates still lives on. This from TIME:

Royal's speech was enough to give many in the audience a new sense of hope that she could reverse her recent plummet in the polls and beat Sarkozy. In the RER commuter train back to Paris, usually one of the grimmest environments of the City of Light, people were engaged in happy talk with strangers about how to improve society. "Man, wouldn't it be great if the RER was like this everyday?" said one middle-aged Socialist about the camaraderie on the train. No one really thinks it could be; usually it's not just Socialists on the train. But having secured her base, Royal now can start doling out the details needed to sell her aspirational message to the rest of France.

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Tim said...

Hi. I've read your blog for a while now. I'm French and I really enjoy reading it. But I think you are paying too much attention to surveys. Five years ago, they were totally wrong. It doesn't reflect what the campaign is all about. What people are not told is the margin of error is about 5% in all the surveys. It is huge because we consider them as precisely right too much. Anyway, that was just an advice for this great blog. Bye !

Boz said...

Thanks for the advice. It is easy to get too wrapped up with polls. However, this speech was Royal's last big policy announcement before the election, so if she can't get a bounce in the polls after this, it will get harder to climb out of the hole later on.