Saturday, February 24, 2007

Royal v. Sarkozy, 1 point difference

It seems that Segolene Royal's latest TV appearance this past Monday may have been her saving grace. A new poll by IFOP says that in a second round vote, Royal would lose to Nicolas Sarkozy 49.5% to 50.5%, a mere one point difference. This is the closest Royal has been to Sarkozy in at least a month or two, and is a far cry from her lowest point ever of 45% to 55%.

Here is what the pollester himself had to say:

"(The TV appearance) played a rather important part (because) it had a function of reinsurance near the electorate of left on the credibility of Ségolène Royal and her capacity to shoulder the presidential function. She made her come-back, reinvested in the ground, while Mr. Sarkozy missed much, with the first criticisms on his project, his (economic) figures, and of the beginnings of cacophony in his camp, however much less strong than that which one saw in the Royal camp.

(Sarkozy) always takes much of the extreme-right-hand side but much less of the UDF (while Bayrou) settles really like the third man of this campaign, gathering the UDF well, taking a little bit of the UMP - 9% sympathizers - and 14% of the sympathizers PS.

We have a slightly insane election, a very very strong indecision , with a voter on two informant capacity to still change opinion and still risks of passage between the electorates Bayrou Sarkozy and Bayrou Royal."

If even the pollsters find these numbers insane, there must still be a long way to go.

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