Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Polls show muddled outcome

The most recent polls for the upcoming presidential election show no clear winners and a still uncertain electorate.

With under 40 days to go until the first round of voting, all three major candidates are within striking distance of each other. UMP candidate and current leader Nicolas Sarkozy has fallen from a strong lead down to 28%, followed still closely by Segolene Royal with 25%. Francois Bayrou continues to advance at both of their expenses, and is now at 24%. If one takes into account the margin of error of 3-4%, there is no predicting what will happen come election day.

The certainty of voters is also undergoing a dramatic shift to the middle. Several days ago 80% of voters for Jean-Marie Le Pen said their choice of him was final, but that has dropped an enourmous 11 points down to 69% today. Segolene Royal still leads Francois Bayrou in this category by 59% to 45%, but Bayrou has been advanced 3 points while Royal fell 5.

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