Thursday, March 1, 2007

Royal comeback peters out

Whatever momentum Segolene Royal picked up after last week's "J'ai une question a vous poser" appearance seems to have petered out. With a quick rise that resulted in one poll showing Royal and Sarkozy 50-50, Royal has slipped back, and is now 4 to 7 points behind Sarkozy.

The two candidates that seem as strong as ever are the National Front's Jean-Marie Le Pen and the UDF's Francois Bayrou. In the latest poll, Bayrou was only 8% behind Royal with 17% in the first round, with Le Pen pulling a strong fourth with 14%.

Bayrou also continues to amaze in hypothetical second rounds. If he faced Royal, Bayrou would win 55% to 45%, and if he faced Sarkozy, Bayrou would win 54% 46%.

Because everything is likely to tighten up before election day, I would go out on a limb to say that Bayrou's support is probably slightly overated as of this time. Somewhat differently, most commentators (and Le Pen himself) agree that public support for Le Pen is understated, and that he would likely finish several points higher than his poll numbers suggest. Could we see Bayrou and Royal cancel each other out, and allow Le Pen to slip by again? Unlikely, but as last election would warn, it ain't over till it's over.

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1 comment:

microdot said...

I think Bayrou will peter out as he had in the past, he is perrenially the third man. He has no base, save his region.
The real danger is LePen, he whose name may not be spoken...most of the people who would vote for him would never admit it. There is a perversity to his appeal. He was a shunned figure a few years ago, but now, he is just another personality who gets his autograph requested by seemingly normal people......