Saturday, March 17, 2007

Segolene, comeback kid?

As mentioned several days ago, although Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has been sinking in the polls with the rise UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, uncertainty in the minds of voters as a whole and more imporantly for Bayrou still showed that she was not down and out.

Over the past few days, new signs of a potential and by no means definite comeback have appeared. A recent Ifop poll put Royal at one point higher (24%) and Bayrou actually down .5% at 22.5%. The daily Ipsos poll has also displayed a minor change, with Royal gaining a point to 24% and Bayrou losing a full point down to 22%. The certainty of vote has also shifted. 65% of Royal's voters are now sure of their decision, compared to a falling 43% for Bayrou. Sarkozy has also fallen in recent days, but is still much higher at 71%.

Like her mini-comeback after the primetime "J'ai une question a vous poser" appearance, this may be short-lived. What it does reveal is that the Bayrou wave, which resulted in soaring poll numbers over the course of only several days, is losing momentum, and by no means inevitable.

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