Saturday, March 10, 2007

Where is the left wing vote?

By the week's end polls appear to be leveling off, and while Bayrou is now at 20.5% on Ipsos' daily poll, he is still a decent amount below Segolene Royal at 26%. Nicolas Sarkozy continues to rest comfortably at 32.5%, and Jean-Marie Le Pen is at a solid 12.5%.

The most striking thing about these numbers is the amount of left wing voters who have left Royal for Bayrou. These top 4 candidates add up to 91.5% of the French votes in the first round, and yet only roughly 28% of these four candidates' support goes to Royal, who is the only one actually on the left of the political spectrum.

Assuming France is roughly split half and half with regard to left and right, many left wing votes are not going to Royal. Even if all of the remaining candidates' votes were given to Royal, 8.5% + 26% = 34.5%, far less than half of the voters. And since it is rather unlikely that many left wingers would throw their support to Le Pen or Sarkozy, that can only mean that they are giving it to the UDF's Francois Bayrou.

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