Sunday, April 29, 2007

Does the center matter?

As reported below, around 80% of the French electorate is decided, either to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, Segolene Royal, or to abstain. A new TNS-Sofres poll sheds some light on where the undecided are leaning.

According to the poll, 8% of voters are still deciding between the two candidates, and another 7% are deciding whether or not to abstain. The poll also reaffirms the rapid shift of Bayrou supporters from Sarkozy to Royal. Before last weekend's vote a majority of Bayrou voters were planning on voting Sarkozy in the runoff, but now 51% of the French believe that a Bayrou-Royal alliance would be natural, against only 33% for the same with Sarkozy. To reinforce this point, 52% of voters believe that Royal's victory would most likely allow take into account Bayrou's ideas; only 27% believe a Sarkozy victory would do the same.

But if this is bad news for Sarkozy at the center, he still has support in one of the most crucial arenas. 64% of the French believe Sarkozy will bring "many or quite some changes", with Royal lagging at a dismal 38%. Will voters vote for change over the center? At this point, it appears so.

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Anonymous said...

resultats des elections sondage et estimation du 6 mai 2007

Boz said...

Thanks for the link.

Alden said...

How do you get to the Center when 30% of your coalition are substantially Communists who would open up Gulag Hiltons the minute they had power? Sego has a real problem convincing people her "Center" has much to do with anything reasonable.

Boz said...

Center is of course a relative term. If the center is defined as Bayrou, than Royal is clearly winning. But the fact that she is still 5% behind in the polls suggests that the center is still closer to Sarkozy. You're right though, if France's socialists ever want to win, they are going to have to break free of the fringe left and their own hardcore anticapitalists.

Alden said...

The problem is that is you remove the hallucinating far left from Sego's total she is not 5% but more like 25% behind not even close to the imagined Center.