Sunday, April 29, 2007
Does the center matter?
As reported below, around 80% of the French electorate is decided, either to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, Segolene Royal, or to abstain. A new TNS-Sofres poll sheds some light on where the undecided are leaning.
According to the poll, 8% of voters are still deciding between the two candidates, and another 7% are deciding whether or not to abstain. The poll also reaffirms the rapid shift of Bayrou supporters from Sarkozy to Royal. Before last weekend's vote a majority of Bayrou voters were planning on voting Sarkozy in the runoff, but now 51% of the French believe that a Bayrou-Royal alliance would be natural, against only 33% for the same with Sarkozy. To reinforce this point, 52% of voters believe that Royal's victory would most likely allow take into account Bayrou's ideas; only 27% believe a Sarkozy victory would do the same.
But if this is bad news for Sarkozy at the center, he still has support in one of the most crucial arenas. 64% of the French believe Sarkozy will bring "many or quite some changes", with Royal lagging at a dismal 38%. Will voters vote for change over the center? At this point, it appears so.
Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France