Friday, April 20, 2007
Le Pen beats Bayrou, SegoSarko near-equal
A final CSA poll taken today shows, if anything, that there are no foregone conclusions in Sunday's vote. In the poll, National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen finished at 16.5%, his highest in the past several months, and .5% above UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who up until this time has been considered the "third man" of the election. The CSA poll also showed Nicolas Sarkozy near equal with Segolene Royal, finishing 26.5% and 25.5% respectively.
What should we take form this? I'm afraid to say to much, considering it may be proved all wrong on Sunday night, but I think it is pretty safe to say that Bayrou will not present a very great threat to Royal. If common belief holds true, that Sarkozy is overestimated and Le Pen underestimated, there very well may be a three horse race, with both Sego, Sarko, and Le Pen finishing in the low 20%'s.
Another interesting question will be, if Bayoru falls flat, where do his votes go? This could ironically end up helping all three other major candidates, because he has amassed such a diverse coalition of supporters. But anything that helps Le Pen and Sarkozy can only threaten Royal, who for the sake of her party and the mental stability of France, cannot allow a repeat of 2002, when Le Pen beat out Socialist Lionel Jospin to enter the runoff.
Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France