Monday, April 30, 2007

Pollster has bad news for Royal


Le Monde has a long interview with Frederic Dabi, the head of IFOP's public opinion department, on the outlook for this weekend's election...and for Royal, he's not very bullish. Although Dabi says that her victory is theoretically possible, it is politically difficult, and the debate on Wednesday will not be enough to reverse any trends.

"The victory of Royal in the second round appears arithmetically possible, but politically very difficult. She must indeed gather the near total of the left, and must manage to attract a great number of Bayrou voters.

(...)

Historically, one never saw a televised debate between two rounds reverse a tendency. Contrary to what was said, it is not the debate of 1974 that ensured the victory of Giscard d'Estaing, who was at the front before the debate. It is the same thing for Mitterrand in 1981. As for 1988 and 1995, the variation in the intentions of vote between, on the one hand, Mitterrand and Chirac and, on the other hand, Chirac and Jospin, were not reduced."


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