Sunday, April 22, 2007

Results out, 2 weeks to go


By now most unofficial results are out and barring any last minute upset, Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal will be going to the second round. Personally I hope that some of the overt skepticism of polls in the French media goes away; it is understandable considering the 2002 upset, but preliminary results this time around mirror the most recent polls quite closely. Actually, the biggest surprise seems to be Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was expected to do (possibly) as best or better than last time. At this point, it looks like polls overestimated him rather than the common belief that he was underestimated.

Obviously the Royal team would have liked to finish neck and neck with Sarkozy, but a very strong second is a decent consolation prize. Finally we'll have the opportunity to see the two major candidates debate face to face. That could possibly influence the May 6 vote much more than the SarkoSego results of this first round.


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10 comments:

Julien said...

Something is weird. I just had confirmation of Le Pen at 18%. I hope you are right.

Boz said...

I'm getting 18% for Bayrou; I guess we'll just have to wait for the official results.

Chez Pierrot said...

Le Pen at 10%, that's great. It's no big surprise considering the fact that the abstention is down to 15%.

Jérémie said...

yes i did too but apparently nothing to worry about.. he' around 11%

Boz said...

You guys might have just missed a record. 1965 was 84.7% turnout and right now Ipsos estimates this year with 84.2%.

Boz said...

Now they just changed it to 84.5%.

Pedro Morgado said...

Sarkozy 29%; Segonele 26%

Boz said...

Thanks, now all results are being released in France.

piktor said...

Boz, CNN has called Sarko and Royal winners.

Boz said...

That's good to know...for a little while I was worried that they were just ignoring the thing altogether.