Thursday, May 3, 2007

Polls show no change


Despite a vigorous debate last night between Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latest polls show little change in the final round. A CSA poll carried out today puts Sarkozy a full 6 points ahead of Royal at 53%, despite the fact that Royal is now getting 37% of Bayrou's voters (30% for Sarkozy). If it does give Royal any hope, however, 33% of Bayrou voters claim they will abstain, and last minute momentum could always sway minds.

Sarkozy also seems to be holding strong among Le Pen voters, even after Le Pen has called for a massive abstention during the runoff. In fact, only 12% of Le Pen voters plan on abstaining, compared to a full 72% who will be voting for Sarkozy on Sunday. Conversely, an Ipsos poll from May 2-3 says that 28% will abstain, but 58% will still vote Sarkozy.

While these numbers are not exact, the possible abstention of a third of Bayrou's or a sizeable number of Le Pen's voters can visibly affect the final tally. Obviously one could devise scenarios in which a high Bayrou low Le Pen turnout would boost Royal, or the converse boost Sarkozy, but I wouldn't hazard a guess as of now. But if Sarkozy still thinks, like soccer, that the runoff is only between first and second place, he may be slightly mistaken.

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4 comments:

Alden said...

This is scary. Is Sego predicting or threatening violence if she is not elected? Its very borderline. We know the patrician left is violent and capable of anything. Sego’s response is irresponsible and dangerous. I really hope it is taken out of context.
"Il y aura des violences si Nicolas Sarkozy est élu ?" A une question de Jean-Michel Apathie, ce matin sur RTL, Ségolène Royal a répondu : "Je le pense". La candidate socialiste a de nouveau dénoncé "les mensonges" du candidat UMP, dont la candidature, selon elle, constitue "un risque".
Speaking of lies, I am publishing this tidbit for the readers. I have to do so since the major left wing media is not publishing this news. You won’t read this on Le Monde or see it on Canal +, TF1-3, so read it here. Sego has to make sure a few Socialists are going to vote for her before she starts to try and attract voters from other parties!

Claude Allègre, ancien ministre de l'Education du gouvernement Jospin, s'est dit aujourd'hui "outré par les mensonges" de Ségolène Royal sur la scolarisation des enfants handicapés, ajoutant qu'il "ne votera pas" pour elle au second tour de la présidentielle. Evoquant du débat avec Nicolas Sarkozy sur cette question, mercredi soir, "j'ai trouvé (sa) colère suspecte et préparée. Je suis outré par ce que ce qui a été dit, c'est des mensonges", a-t-il ajouté. Selon lui, "les emplois ont été créés par Luc Ferry (ministre de l'Education nationale) sous le gouvernement Raffarin".

ariane said...

Il est clair que ton enthousiasme pour Sarkozy dépasse les principes fondamentaux du respect des opinions de chacun.
Je pensais que tu ne voulais pas d'attaque personnelle à l'encontre des candidats.
Il est évident que le plan Handiscole de Ségolène Royal lui tenait particulièrement à coeur, pour l'avoir créé et promu en tant que Ministre de l'Education. Ce plan a été supprimé puis remplacé par le gouvernement de droite, et la réaction de Mme Royal n'a rien de surfait, quand on sait l'importance qu'elle a accordé à ce projet, et la proposition hallucinante de M. Sarkozy de recours en justice au bout de 5 ans par les parents d'enfants handicapés!!

Dans ce débat, les deux candidats ont donné de faux chiffres, mais ils ont tenu le choc et ne se sont pas laissé dominer. Ton interprétation de l'issue du duel est particulièrement désobligeante.
En effet, les sondages n'ont pas du tout évolué avant et après la confrontation. Les électeurs se sont donc confirmés dans leur position.

L'importante avance de ton candidat ne devrait pas te donner ce ton méprisant et parfaitement irrespectueux.
Ce n'est pas Mme Royal qui parle d'éventuelles violences, ce sont de nombreuses associations de quartier.
De plus, les médias français ont été très indulgents à l'égard du candidat de droite. L'actionnaire majoritaire du groupe TF1, chaîne la plus regardée du pays, est un ami personnel de ton cher Sarkozy.
Ce dernier a fait renvoyé le rédacteur en chef de Paris Match pour avoir publié des photos de sa femme avec un autre homme.
Arnaud Laguardère est également un ami du candidat.
Parler de "risque" est donc de loin justifié, quand on sait la connivence du futur Président de la République avec les médias et les puissances d'argent.

Cesse un peu cet acharnement, plus proche d'une réelle fermeture d'esprit et d'un endoctrinement pathétique que d'une quelconque réflexion.

Cela dit, je respecte toujours tes opinions, mais la façon dont tu les portes me sidère.

Bien à toi

Alden said...

I was really willing to give Sego the benefit of the doubt. But the debate was typical Santa Claus style socialism promising goodies for everyone without a clue as to how they would be paid for (except in much higher taxes off the backs of the already submerged middle and working class) and a staged outrage scene (worthy of a B actress) concerning handicapped children that has even been denounced by high level PS leaders.

1. Claude Allegre is PS not UMP. The attack is not my attack nor one by Sarkhozy, but one by a leading Socialist figure in France. This is important for the readers to know! You won’t read this information anywhere in the press, but you get it here..LIVE..thanks to our host Boz!

2. Inciting to violence is a pathetic tactic in a democracy. It might work in the Third world but not in civilized society. Sarkozy, like most French people, was outraged by the statements of Royal this morning. She is coming unglued. The more this person opens her mouth under pressure the more she reveals who she really is, and, as a consequence, her numbers are plummeting.

3. I can have empathy with the stress she must feel. It’s not easy to campaign at these levels for such a long time and find oneself losing ground everyday. But her coming apart at the seams in these last days does a real disservice to her and her party. She just was not cut out to be President. It’s a tough job, everyday, for five long years. She is losing it after five months.

4. The challenge is to look forward to the legislative elections to provide Sarkozy with a strong majority so his vision for France can be implemented. If he has to live for five years in cohabitation, like Ronald Reagan had to, he will not be able to implement the totality of his plan and notably the national debt might remain high as a result of spending at the legislative level.

5. France has incredible potential. There is no reason she should not be the #1 economic power in Europe. She has the geographic position, the natural and human resources to do it. I can only imagine France with a turbo-charged wealth producing economy whose benefits will trickle down to all strata of society, even to the suburbs as it has in so many other countries. Don’t listen to revisionist history, go to countries with free economies and you will see working people, ”ouvriers”, who have greater net worths than “cadre superieures” in France. That proof will have a real impact on those of you who work everyday and have nothing to show for it.

Ariane, don't despair.
Look at it this way, the PS has had fifty years to get it right and they have failed. So trying new ideas might just be a good thing..non? Cheers!

tomxx75 said...

All I can say is it's about time france economy follows the liberal way even if I doubt Sarkozy will go crazy on liberalism and will respect what makes the fundations of france finally a boost in the RIGHT direction might allow France to become competitive once again in the world hence allowing much more prosperity inside the country. The socialist model has failed and only seeks to bring everyone to the bottom. I only think it's fair that people who succeed enjoy their money and are potentially able to reinvest in the french economy. I too am a little worried about the apparent fascination from Sarkozy towards the US neo-cons and eventhough I wish France and the US and britain to have warm relationships I will be carefully watching what's happening in international politics if Sarko is elected. Other than this I am not worried about violences. France politics cannot be dictated by some delinquents living in our cities. The majority of the french will have elected him, the others need to have faith and follow and hope they win the next elections peacefully or we're not in a democracy anymore. Anyway have faith people, Sarko gives the impression he has a perfectly clear plan on where to take us and make us a powerful country again and I respect that.