Thursday, May 3, 2007
Polls show no change
Despite a vigorous debate last night between Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latest polls show little change in the final round. A CSA poll carried out today puts Sarkozy a full 6 points ahead of Royal at 53%, despite the fact that Royal is now getting 37% of Bayrou's voters (30% for Sarkozy). If it does give Royal any hope, however, 33% of Bayrou voters claim they will abstain, and last minute momentum could always sway minds.
Sarkozy also seems to be holding strong among Le Pen voters, even after Le Pen has called for a massive abstention during the runoff. In fact, only 12% of Le Pen voters plan on abstaining, compared to a full 72% who will be voting for Sarkozy on Sunday. Conversely, an Ipsos poll from May 2-3 says that 28% will abstain, but 58% will still vote Sarkozy.
While these numbers are not exact, the possible abstention of a third of Bayrou's or a sizeable number of Le Pen's voters can visibly affect the final tally. Obviously one could devise scenarios in which a high Bayrou low Le Pen turnout would boost Royal, or the converse boost Sarkozy, but I wouldn't hazard a guess as of now. But if Sarkozy still thinks, like soccer, that the runoff is only between first and second place, he may be slightly mistaken.
Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France