French Élection 2007

Good Night and Good Luck

2007-05-14T03:28:00.000-07:00

I will by signing off from here. Thanks to all who have come here over the past half-year to follow the French election news, I've have a lot of fun and I hope you have too. This site will be up for the forseeable future if you have any pressing need to look back on the past few months' campaign. I hope you'll continue to follow the French news at my new site seen above, Politique, which will aim to do the same thing this blog has done for the election but for French politics in general. If you ever need to reach me send a message to Bozpolitics@hotmail.com

New Home

2007-05-13T03:35:00.000-07:00

If you're curious why I haven't updated recently, it's because I am currently getting the successor site, Politique, ready. I will soon be doing all my posting there in a few days.

Royal Hurry

2007-05-12T09:13:00.000-07:00

Nicolas Sarkozy is working behind the scenes to put a government together, and still has several days until becoming France's next president, but that has not stopped Segolene Royal from beginning the 2012 presidential campaign.

Today Royal said that the Socialist primary campaign in late summer and fall of 2006 was a destructive process, and that "internal attacks" were seized upon by the right in the presidential campaign. To remedy this Royal suggested a much speeded up process of designating the Socialist candidate for 2012:

"It will be necessary to reform the calendar of designation (...) It's necessary that the candidate is designated much earlier, so that he is not exhausted in quarrels and internal conflicts."

And her timetable? "Quickly...after the legislative elections, as of the next congress." Any Socialist Party congress would be held in March 2008 or in the autumn. Nothing seems to be stopping her from positioning herself to be the 2012 candidate, although to have any chance of winning, she would likely have to break away from the hard-line socialists and far leftists that have restrained the party from moving closer towards a US/UK style mainstream left wing. With the fractures between herself and her own party this time around, she is also hoping that "Ensemble, tout devient possible."

Sarkozy & Blair, Royal & Clinton

2007-05-11T16:10:00.000-07:00

Today President-elect Nicolas Sarkozy met UK Prime Minister Tony Blair in Paris, although Blair is himself stepping down at the end of June. After the meeting, Blair told reporters "I totally agree" when asked about Sarkozy's idea of a simplified EU treaty, a response to the "No" vote against the EU constitution in France. Sarkozy also used the occasion to praise Blair for his work as prime minister:

"Tony Blair profoundly modernized his country. He knew how to create majorities beyond his own political family to achieve important results."

This past week's vote has also brought another international political duo into the mix: Segolene Royal and Hillary Clinton. Early in the week Clinton operatives went on damage control, ensuring that no analogies are made between the two:

"Other than the fact that they are both women, they don't have much in common."

"Hillary Clinton offers a very different kind of choice than the French faced...(she) is well regarded as strong, smart and a leader. Her experience says she is ready to see the country through changes with a steady, substantive and sure hand."

However, this is not the first time Clinton has tried to distance herself from her French counterpart. In late last year it was reported that Segolene Royal had cancelled her US trip because Hillary Clinton refused to meet with her.

Royal to sit out

2007-05-11T03:21:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has announced today that she will not be a candidate in the upcoming legislative elections, saying it goes against her principles.

"Although the law allows it, the future is not of multiple political offices, and I apply myself to this non-plurality of which I had defended the principle during the presidential campaign."

She is currently the President of the Poitou-Charentes region. Even the question of being in multiple political offices at the same time is foreign to most American ears, although this is quite a common practice in France, where a national politician might then hold some other position back in his/her home district.

French tell Sarkozy to enjoy

2007-05-10T18:04:00.001-07:00

Newly elected Nicolas Sarkozy has taken heat for freely using the yacht of a billionaire friend off of Malta, but apparently the French don't seem to care. In a newly released Opinion Way poll, 58% of the French said that the trip was "not outrageous," more than the 53% that elected him president.

However, the numbers break down roughly on party and political lines. 95% of Sarkozy voters considered the trip normal, whereas 67% of Royal voters were shocked. But considering Royal's defeat, the left really needs a new strategy. Why not let Sarkozy enjoy his vacation...when it comes time for economic reform at home, he might conveniently leave vacation time alone.

A Bush welcomes Sarkozy

2007-05-10T12:37:00.000-07:00

In a sign of possible things to come and something that is sure to ruffle the feathers of some French, today US President George Bush said he looks forward to working with his new French counterpart.

"I had met with him before when he came over here and found him to be a very engaging, energetic, smart, capable person. We will have our differences and we will have our agreements, and I'm looking forward to working with him."

Bush also mentioned that he had been three minutes late in the scheduled congratulations call, so "I'm so grateful that he took my phone call."

A little humor

2007-05-09T13:48:00.000-07:00

Yes Nicolas Sarkozy is getting ready for a new job and sporadic violence continues, but that doesn't mean there is not time for a little bit of humor.

FRENCH president-in-waiting Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday unveiled his radical plans for a social revolution in France including a cut in the lunch break from nine to eight hours.

Restaurants have been told that 'dejeuner' must now consist of a maximum of 12 courses, reduced from 14, excluding petit fours.

Wine consumption by workers with their afternoon meal will be limited to one bottle per person, although there will be no restriction on champagne.

As a result, Mr Sarkozy said, the working day in France will be increased from the current three hours to three-and-a-half.

Mr Sarkozy wasted no time in jetting off on holiday after winning the election saying he would be back to sort out France after a nice long break.

The Return of the King

2007-05-09T03:20:00.000-07:00

Tonight President-Elect Nicolas Sarkozy will return from vacationing to France. His travels have raised some eyebrows because the yacht he has been photographed in belongs to a French businessman and corporate raider by the name of Vincent Bolloré, who is listed as being worth US$1.7 billion and the 451st richest person in the world.

Sporadic violence and protests have continued since this past Sunday night, but these have been greeted by pleas from left-wing leaders to stop. Soccer player Lilian Thuram had this to say.

"Stop! There are many other means of being made hear more effectively. We live in a society full of prejudices, this violence reinforces them whereas they should be fought.

(...) people revolt when it there is injustice...Nicolas Sarkozy was elected democratically."

Blair gets digital

2007-05-08T18:15:00.000-07:00

British PM Tony Blair spoke with Nicolas Sarkozy soon after his win, congratulating him and getting the first opportunity to talk with Sarkozy's choice of French Prime Minister. But that wasn't enough for Downing Street. Yesterday Blair's official Youtube page posted two video congratulations by the British Prime Minister, one 2:32 minute version in English, and a longer 3:43 minute version in French. Unfortunately, comments are banned, so Blair won't be getting any hints on improving his French (or English for that matter, he seemed to be struggling at certain moments). Ironically, the video looks like it was dreamed up by Segolene Royal's campaign...perhaps her campaign advisors now have some new opportunities on the horizon.

Protests, US, Hallyday

2007-05-08T03:21:00.000-07:00

Protests
While Nicolas Sarkozy is vacationing on the Republic of Malta, he missed scattered protests and violence across France on the night of his election, resulting in 592 arrests and 730 burned cars.

Some of the most concentrated violence took place at Place de la Bastille in Paris where the police fired volley after volley of teargas cluster grenades that looked like fireworks before descending on the crowd of young protesters. At one point, the square — the site of the July 14, 1789, uprising that is celebrated annually — was thick with white teargas reflecting the orange glow of a car fire while silhouetted youths heaved paving stones at tight formations of armored riot police officers.

American reaction
Americans on both political aisles have gotten downright giddy, at least relatively speaking, and White House sources say that Bush was relieved he didn't have to congratulate Royal.

We certainly look forward to cooperation with the French,” Tony Snow, the White House press secretary, said Monday, adding: “We know that there are going to be areas of disagreement. But on the other hand, there are certainly real opportunities to work together on a broad range of issues.”

The two presidents will meet in Berlin next month for the Group of 8 summit meeting of industrial nations, and Mr. Sarkozy would be expected to visit the United States for the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.

Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, told CNN on Sunday, “It would be nice to have someone who’s head of France who doesn’t have a knee-jerk reaction against the United States.”

On the same program, Senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana, said that “Sarkozy would be favorable to the United States,” adding, “Clearly his views are more in line with ours.”

Newt Gingrich, the former Republican speaker of the House, meanwhile, praised Mr. Sarkozy on the CBS News program “Face the Nation” on Sunday as “the candidate of change.”

May surprise
Although it may not turn out to be true, Sarkozy has been elected on a platform of competence, and that will mean that voters will expect results. Luckily, they only had to wait until today when singer Johnny Hallyday announced that he will leave his exile in Switzerland and return to France now that Sarkozy will cap taxes at 50%.

Back in the USSA

2007-05-07T13:46:00.000-07:00

Ok, just the US, but I'm back after about 36 hours in France. Thanks for all those who tuned in last night, it's always something to see a campaign that has lasted for months and months end in one night. This blog is obviously nearing the end of its usefullness, although I will be covering news at least until Sarkozy's inauguration on May 16. At that point I will definitely have something new, which will likely be related, although I will not have the endurance to keep up a daily news site. It will likely be a mixture of news and analysis updated every few days...but that's too far in the future for right now.

The biggest news of the day has been Sarkozy's announcement (actually during a telephone call with Tony Blair) that his prime minister will be Francois Fillon, currently his senior political advisor. Fillon is roughly the same age as Sarkozy, and has been Minister of Labor and Minister of Higher Education and Research.

A look forward

2007-05-06T13:40:00.000-07:00

Sorry it took so long to get back, there were some technical difficulties. This was a night filled with statements. First Royal graciously accepted defeat, then Sarkozy spoke, then Royal again spoke from a balcony, and finally, UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who had the last word on his own political fortunes.

But rhetoric does not naturally translate into practice. Nicolas Sarkozy now must prove himself, making sometimes painful economic reform palatable and sustainable in terms of public opinion, reinvigorating US-France relations without becoming the next Tony Blair, and dealing with a host of other domestic and international issues that are not pressing but still crucial. Sarkozy does not and will not succeed in everything, but he is being elected on a promise of competence, and that will demand quick results of some kind.

In many ways we have had mixed impressions and messages from Sarkozy. He is the son of an immigrant who wants to crack down on immigration, but who has at the same time suggested affirmative action and other initiatives to integrate the unemployed/underemployed minorities. He wants to cut state jobs and liberalize the labor market, but will not hesitate to interfere in the name of economic nationalism. He once called Frances stance in advance of the Iraq war "arrogant", but then praised it. The real Sarkozy will only be revealed overtime, for better or for worse.

Royal will also have a chance to prove herself. With her stunning primary victory, she gave her party a whole new criteria with which to choose candidates, at the risk of sounding cliche, the whole process became more Americanized, realizing that exciting personality is a key component in a democratic leader. Some thought she might become a French John Kennedy. She didnt. But she is still a relatively young woman in political terms, and can still accomplish a great deal if she wished to.

The great thing about democracy is that although it is hard to find great leaders, getting rid of bad ones is easy (unless Le Pen gets into the second round). If five years hence Sarkozy has reneged on his promises in face of pressure from the street, or enacted reform that has genuinely harmed the French way of life, he can be removed. Whether there are good alternatives is the task of the French left and center for the next five years.

Bayoru has a choice

2007-05-06T11:22:00.000-07:00

The leader of the UMP in the National Assembly has asked UDF candidate Francois Bayrou to join Sarkozy in his majority.

"I wish that Francois Bayrou rejoins us, he was with us for decades, he has his place today. But it is up to him to do so."

Awaiting Sarkozy

2007-05-06T11:11:00.000-07:00

Next President of France Nicolas Sarkozy will be speaking momentarily in his first speech since the results have come out...he is being driven there now. His car is being swarmed by motorcycles, I believe both security and press. Numerous UMP supporters are celebrating outside his campaign HQ, and more are/going to be gathering at the Place de la Concorde, which is already set for a live performance.

Segolene Talks

2007-05-06T11:03:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal is adressing an audience outside her campaign HQ just a minute after the results became official. She said that the high turnout is a sign of a new democracy. "We are going to continue together...I assume responsibility." At the end of the several minute statement she told her supporters to keep their energy and that she will continue to battle with them.

Little disturbance during vote

2007-05-06T10:50:00.001-07:00

Despite the incredible turnout today, reports so far show very little disturbances or problems. Several voting stations were vandalized in Paris, and 34 cars were burned last night, but nothing that could affect the results.

Sarkozy v. Spiderman

2007-05-06T10:33:00.000-07:00

I would just like to point out the coincidence that Sarkozy (presumably, of course) will win this election on the same day that Spider Man 3 becomes the "most successful new release in box office history", raking in US$148 million this opening weekend. Even if Sarkozy gets a turnout record, that is not exqatly a good consolation prize...in comparison with $148 million.

Sarkozy Wins

2007-05-06T10:19:00.000-07:00

French media still must adhere to not publishing results for the next half hour, but they are basically declaring UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy the winner.

The headline on Lemonde.fr:

"Les partisans de Nicolas Sarkozy ne doutent plus de leur succès"

Candidates set for results

2007-05-06T09:55:00.000-07:00

At 6:00pm Segolene Royal arrived at her campaign HQ on Boulevard Saint-Germain in Paris, although no statements were made. Police are also preparing for a probable Sarkozy victory celebration at La Place de la Concorde, closing three metro stqtions and deploying extra forces to the area.

Candidates voting

2007-05-06T09:23:00.000-07:00

This montage from Le Figaro; each candidate voting in his/her own district earlier in the day. According to the BBC, Sarkozy voted along with his two daughters, but his wife Cecilia, who was present during the first round, was missing today. At 5:00 pm Sarkozy arrived at his HQ in Paris to await results.

Total participation might hit 86%

2007-05-06T09:01:00.000-07:00

Ifop and CSA are predicting that final turnout will hit 85% to 86% of voters, approaching final turnouts of 87.3% in 1974 and 85.9% in 1981.

Turnout over 75%

2007-05-06T08:44:00.000-07:00

By 5:00 pm French time, turnout has reached 75.11%, one of the highest in decades, and several points above the 73.87% at the same time two weekends ago. The big question of course is who will benefit. It could be more Le Pen voters who decided to ignore calls for abstention and come out to vote for Sarkozy. It could also be voters of Bayrou, but because they are split more evenly, it is hard to say who that would help.

Walking around today it is (ironically considering the heavy press coverage) difficult to even recognize that an election is taking place. Other than the occasional candidate posters and a few voting stations tucked into schools, there really was not much apparent activity.

Voting begins, Party planned, Stay tuned

2007-05-05T09:16:00.000-07:00

Voting begins

Just like two Saturdays ago, the islands Saint Pierre and Miquelon off of eastern Canada began the presidential vote at 8:00 am local time. They are being followed by French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and French Polynesia. French voters in the rest of the Americas, including 74,000 in the US, 46,000 in Canada, 11,600 in Argentina, 10,889 in Brazil, and a scattering of others will also be voting today. The number of registered voters overseas has more than doubled since 2002, (820,000 compared with 385,000), although over 100,000 people return to vote in France itself.

Party planning

According to a source close to Nicolas Sarkozy, a victory party for Sunday night is already being planned to take place at the Place de la Concorde in Paris. Some of Sarkozy's most high-profile supporters will take part in the event, including French singer and current Swiss resident Johnny Hallyday.

Be back soon

Thanks to France 24, I am actually going to Paris tonight, so I won't be updating until sometime in the afternoon on Sunday. Because I don't want to find myself a target of Inspector Clouseau, I will not be publishing voting results until 8:00 pm French time, although I can say that the probability that every poll taken over the past 3 months is wrong is approaching zero, so don't hold your breath for any massive upsets. Thanks for staying tuned and I'll be back online soon.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Final interview with Sarkozy

2007-05-05T03:39:00.000-07:00

UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy gave a final interview with Le Parisien, but because of election rules, it was only published on its website.

Asked on whether Royal's predictions that there would be riots if he were elected, Sarkozy responded:

"To explain that if people don't vote for one candidate there will be violence is quite simply to refuse the democratic and republican expression of opinion. We've never seen this before, never. It's a worrying form of intolerance."

And later on:

"That is to say that certain persons would contest the rules of the Republic and the law of the majority. I cannot imagine it...Despite all the efforts of Madame Royal, the "Anyone but Sarkozy", she has not met great success."

He was also asked about Royal comparing him with President Bush, Sarkozy replied:

"Instead of explaining her propositions and criticizing mine, she has wanted to caricature me...I am myself, I defend my own ideas."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Campaign closes with fiery rhetoric

2007-05-04T16:10:00.000-07:00

The last day of the week before election weekend ended with some of the harshest rhetoric seen in this campaign, much of it coming from Socialist candidate Segolene Royal:

"I find it indecent to say that the election is already done and indecent the statements of Mr. Sarkozy who said that the game's finished...(Mr. Sarkozy is a) danger. I am not the only one to say it. Francois Bayrou said with harder words still. It is known for example that the situation is extremely fragile in the popular districts. When he makes acclaim the word Kärcher in his meetings, it is very imprudent."

Earlier she got downright ridiculous, accusing Sarkozy of being a threat to democracy.

"When I see the way in which this debate (with the president of UDF) was scorned, was vilified, I think that tomorrow, the Republic will be in difficulty, democracy is indeed threatened.

The right-wing candidate is a danger to the unity of the Republic, for social peace, the public services. It is necessary to escape this lead cover of power the media, the financial powers. Is is necessary that the people draw themselves up, seizes their ballot."

By far the oddest moment of the day came when a civil saftey helicopter flew over near where Royal was, and she said: "Hello! We are here. They observe us..."

This all comes as the last polls give Nicolas Sarkozy an even farther lead. According to an Ipsos poll taken today, Sarkozy would win with 55%, a 10 point victory over Royal.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal gets desperate

2007-05-04T03:27:00.000-07:00

With no change recorded in polls after Wednesday's debate, Socialist candidate Segolene Royal is playing her last two cards available.

George Bush:

"He (Sarkozy) imitates George W. Bush in this technique of compassionate conservative. One cries over people. The various facts are used and, when one is at responsibilities, one does not act for the present and one promises for tomorrow. See the election campaigns of Bush, but, when there was the catastrophe of New-Orleans, one did not see it on the ground!...(Sarkozy) carries the same neoconservative ideology."

Polls:

"Come massively to the ballot boxes and come to make the polls lie. Stop (media) conditioning your voters without without rest, stop leaving the polls format (voters), let the voters choose!

(...)

Me, I initially ask them to come to vote massively and also to revolt against this way of making which consists in saying that since the surveys spoke, the ballot boxes spoke."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Polls show no change

2007-05-03T18:42:00.000-07:00

Despite a vigorous debate last night between Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latest polls show little change in the final round. A CSA poll carried out today puts Sarkozy a full 6 points ahead of Royal at 53%, despite the fact that Royal is now getting 37% of Bayrou's voters (30% for Sarkozy). If it does give Royal any hope, however, 33% of Bayrou voters claim they will abstain, and last minute momentum could always sway minds.

Sarkozy also seems to be holding strong among Le Pen voters, even after Le Pen has called for a massive abstention during the runoff. In fact, only 12% of Le Pen voters plan on abstaining, compared to a full 72% who will be voting for Sarkozy on Sunday. Conversely, an Ipsos poll from May 2-3 says that 28% will abstain, but 58% will still vote Sarkozy.

While these numbers are not exact, the possible abstention of a third of Bayrou's or a sizeable number of Le Pen's voters can visibly affect the final tally. Obviously one could devise scenarios in which a high Bayrou low Le Pen turnout would boost Royal, or the converse boost Sarkozy, but I wouldn't hazard a guess as of now. But if Sarkozy still thinks, like soccer, that the runoff is only between first and second place, he may be slightly mistaken.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Election Coverage

2007-05-03T13:39:00.000-07:00

For any NPR fans in the US you might recognize the name Christopher Lyndon, who used to host the show The Connection. Anyway, I've been alerted that his new show, Open Source, has a show tonight entirely on the French election, including a discussion with a journalist from France Europe Express and 2 bloggers. If you have any questions for the guests or comments, head over there. Cherish English language election analysis when you can.

Le Monde endorses Royal

2007-05-03T10:54:00.000-07:00

Today has been the typical end of campaign day. Sarkozy held a final rally in Montpellier, Royal in Lille. Although an Opinionway poll said that 53% of viewers found Sarkozy more convincing in last night's debate (compared to 31% for Royal), the general feeling is that it was a draw, at least in how it will affect the polls. Final polls are also showing a near 90% firmness of vote, which leaves very few voters undecided.

Le Monde has given a cautious endoresement to Segolene Royal, although it concedes that "The president of the UMP is likely going to become the president of the country" for various campaign reasons.

Le Monde director Jean-Marie Colombani says that Royal's project is centered on addressing a social elevator that "is broken down not only for those which are with the bottom of the scale, but for an always increasing part of this middle class." He accuses Sarkozy of an "American" vision because his propositions "favor the top of the social pyramid." Colombani ends with this:

"Ségolène Royal outlined a "desire" of change, laying out a prospect. Her defeat, especially if it were heavy, would inevitably plunge the PS in the resettling of accounts, the return in strength of all the archaisms and all the negative Utopias. Her victory would give her the authority to begin this work of essential reinvention. It is a bet. For the country, it deserves to be tried.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bayrou won't vote Sarko

2007-05-03T03:13:00.000-07:00

UDF leader Francois Bayrou has refused to endorse either presidential candidate in this weekend's runoff, although he told Le Monde last night that "I will not vote for Sarkozy...he risks worsening the tears in the social fabric."

This now leaves Sarkozy taking two major blows in the past week(s): the loss of the majority of Bayrou's voters and the possible abstention of Le Pen's voters. Neither seems in itself capable of pulling him down as of now, at least according to the polls, but the combined effect could bring him equal to Royal, especially if polls are not taking into account voter turnout.

But if he felt good about his debate performance, he shouldn't worry. 20 million viewers tuned in on average last night, with a peak at 9:45pm at 23.1 million around the world.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Thoughts on Debate

2007-05-02T19:39:00.000-07:00

I've just finished watching the majority of tonight's debate, so I thought I would finally comment. First of all, Royal did a much better job during most of the debate itself in terms of TV behavior. Each candidate naturally repeated the same propositions that we have heard throughout the campaign, but Sarkozy was noticeably looking at the table or at the moderators, where as Royal was always looking intently across the table at Sarkozy.

Nevertheless, the conclusions gave me the reverse impression. Sarkozy either wear's his heart on his sleeve or is an excellent actor, for whenever he talks about the value of work and his intent to act, he comes across convincingly and charismatic. Royal, on the other hand, easily slipped into her "mother of four" speech, which ended up sounding trite and scripted.

Overall, this will lead voters to make up their minds only by reinforcing already established impressions. Neither candidate really stood out for the better or worse, which by default will hurt Royal. In tomorrow's Washington Post the article on the debate highlights Royal's instant of "anger" as a decisive moment.

In front of millions of television viewers, Sarkozy turned the tables. Royal got furious when he started talking about handicapped children, saying he was "playing" with the issue. "I am very angry," she said.

"You become unhinged very easily, Madame," said Sarkozy. "To be president of the republic, one must be calm. ... I don't know why Mrs. Royal, who's usually calm, has lost her calm."

If this becomes the defining moment of the debate, it could very well damage her, although I doubt it will do either. You can watch the interchange here. Watching it one starts to get flashbacks to that 1993 debate between the two, when a younger Segolene Royal refused to allow Sarkozy to interrupt her. It's reassuring to know that despite the differences in circumstances, they haven't much changed.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Everybody Wins

2007-05-02T16:36:00.000-07:00

If the leaders of the PS and UMP are to be believed, both Royal and Sarkozy won tonight's debate.

Francois Hollande (Head of PS and Royal partner):

"The debate was profitable. Segolene led and even dominated the exchange (...). She showed (...) credibility. She also showed coherence."

Julien Dray (Royal spokesperson):

"Those which did not know Ségolène Royal discovered a president, a woman of authority, convictions. Several times, Nicolas Sarkozy was on the defensive. Perhaps it is that he did not expect such a confrontation and such an intensity.

Rachida Dati (Sarkozy spokesperson):

"He was very clearly and very precise, which was not the case of Ségolène Royal who throughout this debate was very fuzzy, indeed in confusion (...) She added confusion to confusion, fuzziness to fuzziness."

Valerie Pecresse (UMP spokesperson):

"This debate, it is Nicolas Sarkozy who won it. Because everyone thought that he was going to be unnerved. Because all the campaign of the PS was only founded on its character, and the fact that it was to make fear."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Live roundups

2007-05-02T16:02:00.000-07:00

For those who want a minute by minute account, follow these links here:

The Guardian Unlimited

Le Monde

Reuters

Noodle Pie

Debate Debrief

2007-05-02T15:47:00.000-07:00

UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Segolene Royal debated tonight in their first and final debate before this Sunday's election runoff. Obviously I cannot summarize a two hour debate right now...I haven't even watched it. But here's some quotes for those who didn't see it.

Sarkozy opened the debate after a random selection. Topics ranged from every domestic problem imaginable to foreign affairs. According to CNN:

Sarkozy often seemed to hold back in the debate, which ran over the scheduled two hours, rarely staring Royal in the eyes and talking instead to the pair of presiding journalists.

As a note, I am leaving sections out of these quotes, and they are not in order.

Royal: "There are democratic forces moving in Turkey which need to be consolidated."

Sarkozy: "Even if it is a non-religious country, it is in Asia Minor. I will not explain to the French schoolboys that the borders of Europe are with Iraq and Syria. When one makes of Kurdistan a European problem, one will not have advanced things."

(...)

Sarkozy: "On nuclear power, are you on the side of Mr. Chevènement or on the side of the Greens?"

Royal: "Do you know what is the share of the nuclear power?"

Sarkozy: "We have half of our electricity which is of nuclear origin."

Royal: "No, 17% only."

(...)

Royal: "To play with the handicap as you have just done is properly scandalous...One reaches the height of political immorality...It is your government which removed not only the Handiscol plan, which removed the assistance-teachers and who makes that today less than one child out of two who was accomodated five years ago in the school of the Republic are not it today."

Sarkozy: "There are three times more handicapped children provided education for today than your time, to Madam."

Royal: "It is not true!"

Sarkozy: "Do not point at me with your finger. To be a president of the Republic, it is necessary to be calm."

Royal: "When there are injustices, there are healthy angers, there are angers which I will have even when I am a president of the Republic."

More later.

Debate Viewing

2007-05-02T09:09:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately I won't be able to cover the debate live, although I will have a full review of the debate and reactions to it later tonight. If you are interested in viewing the debate, you can watch it live here, and also likely on several other French news channels here. Most analysts agree that this debate will not swing many voters unless something catastrophic happens, although I wouldn't count anything out. Make sure to observe what Segolene Royal is wearing, as that may hint as to how she will be behaving against Sarkozy. I know it sounds sexist, but it is true.

Foreign Policy Gap

2007-05-02T04:05:00.000-07:00

Whoever follows in President Jacques Chirac's footsteps, he or she will undoubtably be a relative foreign policy novice. To account for the lack of experience and lack of attention on foreign policy in this campaign, The New York Times has a great overview of how Royal or Sarkozy might behave on the world stage, and their rough and tumble experiences so far.

Actually the most interesting part of the article was the comments that have come from US leaders. According to one unnamed senior White House official, Sarkozy's September 2006 visit to President Bush made quite the impression.

"What struck everybody is how strong a person he is and how strong a leader he could be. He was rather impressive, to tell you the truth."

Sarkozy even collected support from left-wing Senator Barack Obama, who said:

“I shouldn’t be predicting French elections, but I know that he has a good opportunity to lead France in the future.”

Forgive me for not accepting Obama's laissez-faire approach. Finally, (I know I'm ignoring the important stuff) the article sums up Sarkozy's and Royal's English language skills in comparison to Chirac's fluency.

The English-language skills of Ms. Royal, who was an au pair in Ireland in the summer of 1971, are rough. A short news clip of undetermined date and origin circulating on YouTube has her saying, in part, “Or with this government, investment in research has decreasing a lot, and that’s bad. I can see, as the presidency of the region, that we need money to invest in research and environment.”

As for Mr. Sarkozy’s English, it is more mind over matter. As he told New York City Fire Commissioner Nicholas Scoppetta during a visit last September: “I run. This morning. In Central Park. With T-shirt firefighters.”

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Happy Debate Day

2007-05-02T03:10:00.000-07:00

Tonight from 9:00pm to 11:00pm Socialist candidate Segolene Royal and UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy will debate on live French television, but before the debate, they have ensured that almost every little detail is accounted for.

The two candidates will be seated facing each other, two meters apart, and at a wood and plexiglass table to reduce reflections. A full 12 cameramen will be filming the event. Each candidate will bring his or her own makeup crew. Just as voting day neared a record turnout, the number of viewers of this debate might do the same. The current record for viewers of a French presidential debate is 1974, when 25 million people tuned in to watch Francois Mitterrand and Valery Giscard d'Estaing. Taking a population of 64 million, that would mean almost 2 in 5 French need to watch it to break the record.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal campaign rally, 60,000 strong

2007-05-01T12:36:00.000-07:00

Tonight Socialist candidate Segolene Royal spoke to an audience of 60,000 at Charléty stadium in Paris, which ironically enough, was a center of the May 1968 protests. Other than the ordinary fiery rhetoric, Royal took Sarkozy on directly on the issue of the value of work, and criticized him for the brutality of his style of governing.

"I do not want to see these women in tears any more in front of the gates of their closed companies, the glances of the workmen fired without protection. And those which philosophize on the value work, have they seen these citizens there? (...) Our country does not need brutality or shock. (France) does not need to declare the war on public utilities, it needs confidence..."

"brutality in the control of the public affairs, which can endanger social peace, civil peace. This danger is contained in the program of the right-wing candidate. I want peace civil in my country!"

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Le Pen calls off vote

2007-05-01T11:19:00.000-07:00

National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, who witnessed his party in one of its worst performances last weekend during the first round of voting, has called on his supporters to abstain in the coming runoff.

"It would be illusory and dangerous to vote for the Socialist candidate to avenge Nicolas Sarkozy's prevention of our programme. But it also would be insane to hand our votes to a candidate who continues to consider us extremists...abstain massively."

It is unclear how many people he is capable of swaying now that the strength of his support has been thoroughly discredited, but he does have a very strong group of loyalists who may now stay at home on election day. This may not eliminate Nicolas Sarkozy's advantage, but it can only hurt it.

Exclusive Debate Preview

2007-05-01T03:24:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow night at 9:00pm (3:00pm EST) Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal will debate on live French television; the International Herald Tribune has a preview. But this won't be the first time these two candidates have come face to face on TV:

When they debated in a TV studio in 1993 they were both political youngsters. The resulting "don't speak to me like that!" outburst from Royal can now be watched on the Internet. She compared him to a "steamroller" and said, "All the television viewers can see that what you are saying is completely off-base!"

But both are formidable talkers, equally combative and prone to override television interviewers who try to butt in. But it would likely require a complete loss of cool, major mistakes or a blatantly misogynistic attack by Sarkozy — which all seem very unlikely from a now seasoned, media-savvy campaigner — for Wednesday's debate to significantly boost Royal's chances of being elected the first woman president of France. (...)

Aides of Royal and Sarkozy organized Wednesday's debate down to the smallest detail. The candidates will face off for two hours, seated at a wooden table and filmed by at least eight cameras. They drew lots to see who will sit where. Fittingly, chance put Royal on the left of the TV screen, and Sarkozy on the right

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Pollster has bad news for Royal

2007-04-30T17:28:00.000-07:00

Le Monde has a long interview with Frederic Dabi, the head of IFOP's public opinion department, on the outlook for this weekend's election...and for Royal, he's not very bullish. Although Dabi says that her victory is theoretically possible, it is politically difficult, and the debate on Wednesday will not be enough to reverse any trends.

"The victory of Royal in the second round appears arithmetically possible, but politically very difficult. She must indeed gather the near total of the left, and must manage to attract a great number of Bayrou voters.

(...)

Historically, one never saw a televised debate between two rounds reverse a tendency. Contrary to what was said, it is not the debate of 1974 that ensured the victory of Giscard d'Estaing, who was at the front before the debate. It is the same thing for Mitterrand in 1981. As for 1988 and 1995, the variation in the intentions of vote between, on the one hand, Mitterrand and Chirac and, on the other hand, Chirac and Jospin, were not reduced."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal hints at PM

2007-04-30T08:52:00.000-07:00

In an interview with Le Monde Socialist candidate Segolene Royal hinted that she might appoint former Minister of Finances Dominique Strauss-Kahn as prime minister if she were elected president next Sunday. Here's the exchange:

LM: You have been in competition with Dominique Strauss-Kahn. He was absent during your campaign for the first round, and now he is very (much) present...

SR: Dominique is present at my side at his request and I am pleased. He is a talented and imaginative man. He could be a very good Prime Minister, if such is my choice.

Strauss-Khan, or DSK as the media abbrieviates, challenged Royal for the Socialist Party nomination last fall and came in second place. He is quite close to former Socialist PM Michel Rocard, who openly called for a PS alliance with UDF leader Francois Bayrou several weeks ago, so Royal is now using DSK as much as possible to appeal to UDF voters. This could also be a ploy to counter attacks that her economic program is anti-growth, for when DSK was Minister of Finances, France enjoyed higher GDP growth and decreasing unemployment. He was also against the 35 hour work week, a position about which Royal has been at best unclear.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sarkozy strikes at '68 strikes

2007-04-30T03:21:00.000-07:00

Yesterday night Nicolas Sarkozy spoke to an audience of 30,000 people, telling them that he was the candidate against the paralyzing left-wing strikes of May 1968.

"In this election, it is a question of whether the heritage of May '68 should be perpetuated or if it should be liquidated once and for all...They have questioned my integrity, my honour, my sincerity, my character. They explained I was dangerous for freedom. They suspect me of wanting to install a police state. They accuse me of pressuring [the media]. I have not joined them in the mud where they wanted to drag me."

It was perhaps his strongest attack yet, blaming what he named the "gauche caviars" for formenting a crisis of "morality, authoity, work, and national identity." In some ways his words sound like they could have come from any American right-wing candidate fighting the "culture wars" against the "hedonistic" left, but the difference is that Sarkozy is talking about economic and public values, not abortion and gay marriage. He is essentially creating the same Vietnam era split that separated John Kerry from George Bush, the former believing that the war was wrong and progress was made during the 60s, and the latter believing the war was just and that the 60s were nothing but the manifestation of immorality. Ok, I'm generalizing.

Such strong attacks could not be ignored, and today Segolene Royal defended the progress that came from 1968, although she admitted that the means were sometimes excessive.

"When I hear Nicolas Sarkozy say that it is necessary to 'liquidate' May 68, I think that it is a very violent vocabulary...By revalorizing the wages, France was freed and growth began again. Of course, there were some excesses as during all tormented periods...all excesses were also the formidable ones advanced compared to the conquests of freedom, autonomy, equality of men and women, trade-union right."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Webmasters in overdrive

2007-04-29T16:04:00.000-07:00

Just before the first round of elections Nicolas Sarkozy's website went into a special "72 heures pour ganger!" with a special blog entitled "Sunday Everything is Possible". Apparently now Segolene Royal's campaign is hoping that the internet can help them with last minute electoral momentum as well.

Royal's flagship website Desirs d'avenir, which helped propel her upstart primary campaign, now has a brand new opening section entitled "La France Présidente", which includes a gazillion interactive windows that cover her campaign vision, presidential pact, and biography. I'm not one for too much glitz, but the site is actually very well done, mixing text, image, and video in a collage-like format reminiscent of Ipod advertisements. If it helps get her message across, great, but let's hope that France does not decide on its next president by the quality of the candidate's website alone.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Does the center matter?

2007-04-29T07:11:00.000-07:00

As reported below, around 80% of the French electorate is decided, either to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, Segolene Royal, or to abstain. A new TNS-Sofres poll sheds some light on where the undecided are leaning.

According to the poll, 8% of voters are still deciding between the two candidates, and another 7% are deciding whether or not to abstain. The poll also reaffirms the rapid shift of Bayrou supporters from Sarkozy to Royal. Before last weekend's vote a majority of Bayrou voters were planning on voting Sarkozy in the runoff, but now 51% of the French believe that a Bayrou-Royal alliance would be natural, against only 33% for the same with Sarkozy. To reinforce this point, 52% of voters believe that Royal's victory would most likely allow take into account Bayrou's ideas; only 27% believe a Sarkozy victory would do the same.

But if this is bad news for Sarkozy at the center, he still has support in one of the most crucial arenas. 64% of the French believe Sarkozy will bring "many or quite some changes", with Royal lagging at a dismal 38%. Will voters vote for change over the center? At this point, it appears so.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

UDF leader supports UMP, Is Feminism to Blame?

2007-04-29T03:46:00.000-07:00

One of the highest ranking members of the UDF, Hervé Morin, has announced that he will be voting for UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. The rest of the UDF camp repeated that this does not signal that Bayrou is violating his neutrality, but that each voter is free to make his or her choice.

Other than that it's been a slow news day so far, so here's some snippets from a Boston Globe op-ed written by a female professor at MIT. She concludes that femininity and power "are still incompatible in many parts of the world," and that Segolene Royals a victim.

Indeed, if any woman is to reach the highest office, it should be Ségolène Royal, for she corresponds to a French national archetype of femininity. In a new book the writer Michele Sarde details how this young woman from the provinces represents a subtle mixture of traditional France (with her similarities to great feminine figures such as Joan of Arc) and the rebellious modernity of Simone de Beauvoir. She is an educated woman who has always worked. With her partner, Francois Hollande, she has shared both private responsibilities (they have four children together) and political visions (he is the secretary of the Socialist Party).

So where are the feminists who should be celebrating this historic occasion and protesting the sexist attacks on the first serious woman candidate for the French presidency? A petition entitled "1 million women have had enough!" -- objecting to the way Royal has been treated -- has gathered only 17,000 signatures. "Feminism" remains a taboo word in France.

Femininity and power are still incompatible in many parts of the world. I say this with a glance toward this side of the Atlantic, where the first serious woman candidate for president has endured petty, unfair criticism in areas ranging from her hair style to her marriage. So while women are gaining political power around the world , the bad news is that they still often find themselves blocked by unrealistic expectations and intractable gender stereotypes. Royal's experience may reflect not just a "French exception," but also a more global reality.

Too little, too late?

2007-04-28T18:41:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has dominated the airwaves in recent days, sidelining Nicolas Sarkozy as she secured the first ever debate between a runoff candidate and a losing candidate, and now winning a plurality of Bayrou's voters (35% compared to 29% for Sarkozy). Not only that, she is attempting to seize the center within the course of several days, walking a political tightrope that risks the alienation many the traditional supporters.

But even if this is allowing her to slowly climb in the polls, it all may be too little too late. According to Ipsos, 85% of the French have made up their minds on for whom to vote and will not alter their decision. This is far higher than the 60% in the days leading up to the first round vote, and leaves little breathing room for Royal to stage a major comeback. Certainly it is enough to get even with Sarkozy before election day, but as of now, it is hard to imagine that this will not continue to be Sarkozy's election to lose. The reverse side of this logic is that it is Royal's election to win, but apparently she has only just realized this.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Socialists gather round after debate

2007-04-28T13:29:00.000-07:00

Watch debate here.

Today Segolene Royal and former UDF challenger Francois Bayrou debated in Paris on live TV, and the general feeling among Socialist leaders is that Royal made the best of the opportunity.

The hour and 45 minute debate was really more of a dialogue, and although both made clear that this was not the beginning of any formal cooperation, there was little to no animosity on either side.

"This event without precedent underlines the modernization of the political life and the need to leave the confrontation of block against bloc...I do not seek to convince Francois Bayrou...(but) to walk some of the way together...(to maintain) direct dialogue with the French."

Royal relieved many socialists by not budging even an inch on her 100 point "presidential pact", even joking at one point to Bayrou that "You are an excellent defender of the presidential pact!"

UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy spent the day criticizing the debate:

"There they are, the two of them, in a big hotel, chatting together. I, I am in the midst of the French people."

...but that only seemed to invigorate the Socialists' praise. And if anything was identical among those voices, it was that the only loser in today's debate was the one candidate not present.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Happy 1st debate day

2007-04-28T03:03:00.000-07:00

Today Segolene Royal and Francois Bayrou are debating on BFM TV, starting at 11:00am in France. It's going on right now, so I'll have a full debrief later in the day.

Libya enters election campaign

2007-04-27T16:30:00.000-07:00

Libya may not be a hot topic on most foreign policy agendas now that it has stopped overtly exporting terrorism, but it took center stage in yesterday's presidential campaign. Five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor were sentenced to death this past December for infecting 426 children with HIV, causing international furore as independent scientists denied that it was the medics' fault. Both Sarkozy and Royal met with members of the prisoners' families yesterday, pledging to work for their release.

Royal:

"The aim is to do everything to obtain their release, particularly on a European level."

Sarkozy:

"I want France to put human rights to the service of these women's rights. We cannot leave them in this situation. We must react, we must act. If I am elected president of the republic, I will make the release of these women and this man a priority."

Of course while moral support is always welcome, neither had any concrete proposals on how to resolve the issue. Perhaps to underline this shallowness, an official of Libya's Foreign Ministry told reporters today that the statements of the two candidates were merely "pre-election publicity".

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Olympic athlete? Vote Sarkozy.

2007-04-27T15:08:00.000-07:00

UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has likely just won over a very small and inconsequential group of French voters: Olympic athletes.

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has recently echoed former challenger Francois Bayrou in saying that a boycott of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Bejing is possible if China does not act to stop the genocide in the Darfur region of Sudan, something not done since the US and Soviet Union held their respective boycotts during the Cold War. While Nicolas Sarkozy has also said that China and Sudan must do more to promote human rights, he has also said that he would not boycott the Olympic games.

"We have the duty - I don't say right - the duty to ask questions of the status of political prisoners, of democracy. (...) I consider that the sporting event is going to bring an extraordinary breath of freedom and that China will be forced to change."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Prodi calls for Royal-Bayrou alliance

2007-04-27T12:59:00.000-07:00

Italian PM Romano Prodi was originally supposed to meet Segolene Royal at a rally in Lyon yesterday, but instead, he today issued an appeal to Royal and Francois Bayrou to form a new alliance of the center-left.

"I am convinced that new alliances of the center-left can give a new dynamism to the political and democratic life of our societies and our Europe. They are the essential condition to make Europe more democratic, more political and more social.

All through this election, you will take part in the restoration of the French political life and beyond, of the European political life. (...) You can become together the new majority of France and we can become together, in 2009, the new majority of Europe."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bayrou takes on Sarkozy

2007-04-27T03:40:00.000-07:00

Update: Reuters is reporting that the Royal-Bayrou debate will be on Saturday and broadcast by BFM TV and RMC.

As I write this Le Monde is reporting that a Royal-Bayrou debate will end up taking place this Saturday afternoon, but that will not do anything to hide the accusations Nicolas Sarkozy has faced for the initial cancellation by Canal+ yesterday.

Canal+ said in a statement that the cancellation was necessary because of election rules requiring equal air time, but according to Royal adviser Jack Lang, that was plainly unecessary.

"The CSA, to my knowledge, has imposed nothing...a time to speak was offered to Mr. Sarkozy by Canal+ either Saturday or Sunday."

Most surprisingly perhaps, UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who just declared his neutrality in the second round, lashed out at Sarkozy, accusing him of pulling the strings for the cancellation of the debate and saying that this is just one example of a dangerous pattern of behavior.

"When I held a press conference Wednesday I spoke of Nicolas Sarkozy about intimidation and threat. It is exactly there where we are.

It is that this debate was cancelled while asserting, or by claiming, that there were rules of the CSA and a request of the CSA who would prevent the holding of the debate. This is absolutely false.

Here, by a whole series of networks (...), which bring closer very great financial powers and of very great media powers around Nicolas Sarkozy, of the direct interventions are made near the draftings, are made near the chains, so that information is locked.

One is choosing the way of an immense regression which blames the elementary right of the French to be informed. And think that Nicolas Sarkozy is not yet elected. Then, what will he be if he is elected?"

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Debate cancelled

2007-04-26T16:42:00.000-07:00

Almost as soon as the Royal-Bayrou debate was scheduled...it was cancelled. Canal+, which was originally going to organize the debate, made a public statement that denied any debate would take place this Saturday.

"(The) rules impose a strict equality of air time between presidential candidates, so Canal+ cannot broadcast the debate between Segolene Royal and Francois Bayrou."

However, a Socialist party spokesman later said that they would ensure this debate is held one way or another.

Blog attempts to align UMP-UDF

2007-04-26T09:42:00.000-07:00

UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and UDF candidate Francois Bayrou may not be allied in the runoff, but that has not stopped former UMP PM Jean-Pierre Raffarin and current UDF Education Minister Gilles de Robien from attempting to form their own ad-hoc alliance.

Their new blog, ledebatudfump.com, (which is hung up at the moment) lists 10 common values that the UMP and UDF share, and asks arty supporters to leave comments. While this may not be enough to upstage Segolene Royal's debate with Bayrou this Saturday, it could open the door for more UDF leaders to publicly support Sarkozy, a tense situation that Bayrou would presumably like to avoid.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sego-Franco Debate on

2007-04-26T09:25:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal and former UDF candidate Francois Bayrou will finally be debating this Saturday at 11:00am in France (5:00am EST). According to Royal co-campaign director Jean-Louis Bianco, it will be broadcast on Canal+, d'i-Télévision, and France-Inter. This follows several days of public discussion back and forth, and last minute opposition from the regional press forum that Royal had first proposed.

The debate itself will be one hour long and moderated by two journalists. For Royal this is a success in itself, for she now has the upper hand in wooing Bayrou's centrist voters while sidelining Sarkozy completely. Bayrou is also gaining, staying in the limelight even though he is not endorsing any candidate.

Debate(s) News

2007-04-26T03:14:00.000-07:00

Today UDF candidate Francois Bayrou once again accepted Segolene Royal's proposition of a debate this Friday in front of the regional press, so long as it is televised. Of course, right when everything seemed to be falling into place, the organizer of this regional press forum have said that they are opposed to the idea of a Royal-Bayrou debate.

As for the real debate between Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal, it will be broadcast by TF1 and France 2, although other stations are free to broadcast as well. Sarkozy and Royal will be face to face and rather close together, but it is so far undecided if they are going to be standing or sitting. Producers have yet to decide whether they will watch the reaction of one candidate while the other is talking. As for the decoration, it will be more modern than previous debates and "very luminous", but according to moderator Patrick Poivre d'Arvor:

"Nothing must disturb the viewers or disturb the debate by a blazing decoration because it is not a variety programme."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sarkozy and Royal take to airwaves

2007-04-25T15:35:00.000-07:00

Both Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy have made the rounds on French TV tonight, addressing the delicate issue of Francois Bayrou and the UDF.

Royal appeared on the France 2 show "A vous de juger", again asking for a debate with Bayrou, and showing remarkable respect for a man who just absolutely criticized her economic plans during a press conference earlier today.

He is a man of the right but he has moved. Over the course of this campaign he has understood a certain number of things and values comprised in my presidential pact. I don't aim to seduce, I aim to gather. There are good ideas to take everywhere. Opening my hand to Mr. Bayrou seems to me a responsible step, respectful to the voters and useful for France."

Nicolas Sarkozy appeared on TF1, refusing the proposition of a debate by Bayrou, but saying that he is ready for dialogue.

"The debate of the second round, it is Mrs. Royal and Mr. Sarkozy. Here are what they have, said the French. In a soccer competition, there is a final. The final is between number 1 and number 2. Number 3, he does another thing but he is not in the final.

For the remainder, I remain a man of dialogue, listening and openness. If Mr. Bayrou wishes that we work, that we reflect, that I listen to, I will readily do it in a form which remains to be determined. For my part I am very open."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal Bayrou debate?

2007-04-25T12:17:00.000-07:00

Already receiving criticism from several left-wing candidates for not backing Royal, UDF candidate Francois Bayrou did accept Segolene Royal's proposal for a public dialogue. After this, Royal said that she and Bayrou should debate this Friday in order discuss certain portions of her presidential pact.

"I propose this debate of explanations on a certain number of proposals of my presidential pact, with the only objective to enlighten the voters, to give dignity to the debate, to clarify the solutions which will make it possible for France to advance (...), and not to convince Francois Bayrou."

Royal may be taking a risky step, because anything that could highlight the differences between her and Bayrou would end up hurting her on election day. Then again, at several points behind in the polls, she needs to do as much as possible to captivate his voters, even if no official endorsement or alliance takes place.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bayrou: Just say No

2007-04-25T08:07:00.000-07:00

Sorry I don't have time to expand upon this now, but UDF candidate Francois Bayrou just announced that he will not be officially endorsing any candidate in the runoff, although he welcomes the overtures of cooperation and dialogue from the two candidates.

I will not give an instruction of vote...I estimate that the French who voted for me are in conscious free citizens of their choice."

Update: Not only did Bayrou refuse to endorse any candidate in today's press conference, he also judged them harshly enough to ensure that he will not back down from neutrality in this election. Bayrou described both Sarkozy's and Royal's presidential programs as a "delirious increase" in expenditure. He also criticized Royal's counter-growth economic plans and Sarkozy for "inflaming dangerous topics."

Also as promised in his election campaign, Bayrou announced the formation of a new political party, "Parti démocrate", which will presumably receive support from the 7 million French who voted for Bayrou in this election.

It will be interesting to see where this election campaign will go, now that the biggest question, Bayrou, has been answered. This will certainly not stop Royal or Sarkozy from continuing to reach out to Bayrou's supporters, but they will have to push their own program's instead of just appealing to the man himself.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bayrou faces opportunity, danger

2007-04-25T03:27:00.000-07:00

While UDF candidate Francois Bayrou may be in one of the most enviable political positions, with both runoff candidates showering him with promises of govenment ministries and presidential majorities, he also faces the risks that his supporters will unilaterally abandon him and/or that the majority UMP party could make a frontal attack during upcoming legislative elections.

Bayrou faced a tricky exercise in keeping his diverse electorate behind him, however, as some UDF lawmakers deserted him Tuesday to back Sarkozy. Bayrou's political future is at stake.

Education Minister Gilles de Robien, a UDF member who backs Sarkozy, was quoted in Le Parisien on Wednesday as saying Bayrou is at an "impasse" and has "lost his bet."

If Sarkozy continues to bleed him of lawmakers, Bayrou could find himself empty-handed or shut out of parliament, with hopes of a new political landscape dashed.

And while an alliance with the socialists doesn't appear too likely, an alliance with the UMP could be politically damaging.

Some analysts speculated that Bayrou could strike a deal with Sarkozy's UMP party that would guarantee spots for the centrists in the government and boost their chances in parliament. Otherwise, Sarkozy's UMP party could seek revenge during legislative elections by putting UMP candidates in every constituency with a centrist candidate.

"If he returns to the right, it's a failure, and will be viewed as an attempt to protect the interests of the UDF," Vincent Tiberj, political analyst with the Institute of Political Science. "If he supports no one, it's irresponsible."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sego lays out her cards

2007-04-24T18:36:00.000-07:00

Today Socialist candidate Segolene Royal reaffirmed her intention to welcome UDF Francois Bayrou into her ranks, saying that if he joined her presidential pact, she would name UDF party members to government ministries. Bayrou will speak tomorrow, but the French media says he is unlikely to make any decisions by then.

Royal also did some house cleaning, thanking "from the bottom of her heart" all the left-wing candidates who endorsed her following their own defeat in the first round. Nevertheless, it is too early to tell if all this maneuvering is shifting the polls. While a recent Sofres poll shows Royal at 49%, just 2 points away from Sarkozy, Ipsos continues to show a 7 point gap.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Prodi to support Royal

2007-04-24T17:24:00.000-07:00

A day after former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi publicly threw his support behind UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, it was announced that current Italian PM Romano Prodi will support Socialist candidate Segolene Royal, and may even join her for a campaign rally. This moves Royal's foreign endorsements up to 3: Zapatero, Chavez, and Prodi. As far as I know Sarkozy has not been officially endorsed by a current foreign leader, but of course, Washington and London are doing little to disguise their enthusiasm for the UMP candidate.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Socialist Shift?

2007-04-24T03:17:00.000-07:00

After a full day of courting Francois Bayrou's voters, fortunes may just be moving slightly in Segolene Royal's favor. According to a new Ipsos poll taken yesterday, 38% of Bayrou's voters would vote for Royal, compared to 35% for Sarkozy, and 27% abstention. Most previous polls showed Nicolas Sarkozy had the slight edge, so with this reversal, we will have to wait and see if anything changed in the general runoff polls.

Co-founder of Doctor's Without Border's Bernard Kouchner, who praised the idea of an alliance between the PS and UDF before the election, has said that Royal's proposition of a dialogue with Bayrou is historically important for the Socialist Party.

That, this is a historic movement in the French Socialist Party, this opening, because all the other European social democratic parties have nod this, they have opened, they have accepted the regulated market economy, while controlling it, and it is this alliance which made Europe."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Econ 101

2007-04-23T17:19:00.000-07:00

In the name of political simplifaction, Nicolas Sarkozy is defined as "right-wing" and Segolene Royal as "left-wing". But to Bloomberg News's economic perspective, Sarkozy is "supply" and Royal is "demand".

"Whether to focus on demand or supply is the main divide between the two candidates," said Dominique Barbet, senior economist at BNP Paribas in Paris. "Sarkozy is more ambitious on the labor market, while Royal wants to increase consumption." (...)

"His platform is a coherent pro-market reformist program, which should enhance potential growth," said Eric Chaney, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley in London and a former forecaster at the French Finance Ministry.

"Royal's program may spur the economy more quickly than Sarkozy's while doing little to improve its longer-term performance," said Gilles Moec, senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in London. (...) Her proposals focus on bolstering consumer demand, which already accounts for two-thirds of the economy, and may not go far enough to address barriers to growth, economists say. "She does nothing to boost potential growth," Moec said.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Horse race begins, endorsements flow

2007-04-23T15:24:00.000-07:00

As the campaign for the second round of voting finished its first day, everyone is either asking for votes or recommending who to vote for.

Foreign Affairs

As reported earlier, Venezuelan President sent his best wishes to Segolene Royal, although he admitted to not knowing her. Later in the day, former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, another pristine example of democracy, announced his support for Nicolas Sarkozy.

(We) will see two conceptions of politics and economics clash, and naturally we are supporters of Sarkozy."

This was quickly denounced by Royal, who said she wanted no part of Berlusconi's Europe. Combined with Spanish PM Zapatero's endorsement of Royal on the eve of the election, there seems to be a competition among foreign leaders to see who can most interfere with France's domestic affairs.

Besson's Betrayal

Today the Judas of this campaign, former Socialist Economic Secretary Eric Besson, who resigned during Royal's campaign and proceeded to write a damaging book about her, declared his support for Sarkozy in front of almost 10,000 UMP supporters.

"I am a man of the left who will support and vote for a man who asserts himself of the right.

I am a progressive convinced that, for this election, it is a republican of the right who carries best the values in which I believe."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal reaches out to Bayrou

2007-04-23T10:57:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal made her first public overture to UDF candidate Francois Bayrou in order to build a untied front against leading candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. According to the AFP:

Royal proposes a "dialogue open and public" with Francois Bayrou on "values" to seek "convergences" for the second round of the presidential election.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

France's Funniest Home Videos

2007-04-23T04:31:00.000-07:00

The mark of any comfortable politician is usually his ability to make fun of himself, and intentionally or unintentionally, Sarkozy's camp is doing much more of this than Royal right now. Some examples:

On Sarkozy's "NSTV" there is now a video montage of election night, behind which play's the most Disneyesque, cheesy, and inspiring music available. Interestingly, the video shows that Segolene Royal's speech was broadcast on the big screen last night in Sarkozy's HQ, a not so subtle hint that Sarkozy wants to seem as inclusive as possible.

You can also watch a video from last Friday, in which Sarkozy rides a horse through a river. I knew politics could get dirty, but this seems to be going a bit too far. Is there that big of a "horseback-riding" vote that Sarkozy was appealing to?

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Chavez supports Royal

2007-04-23T04:11:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has received support from an unlikely place: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

We don't know her, but woman and socialist...our heart is with her."

He also invited her (potential) predecessor, President Jacques Chirac, to come to Venezuela.

"the French president was an excellent friend, I invited him to come here to rest. Let us hope that he will visit us one day."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bayrou center of attention

2007-04-23T03:22:00.000-07:00

On a day when the media can finally focus all attention on the two major candidates in this election, all eyes have now turned to UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who while losing in a disappointing third, holds a disproportionally large section of France's swing votes, all crucial on the May 6 runoff. The question is what will he do with this 18.5% of the vote.

The capital which he accumulated during this campaign, he intends to convert it into an autonomous force, which will have its own representation within the French National Assembly: "This hope that we gave birth to...I will not give up it," promised Mr. Bayrou. I will not give up any of these convictions. I will not retrogress."

But will he endorse either Royal or Sarkozy? Bayrou is going to speak at another press conference this Wednesday April 25, and may speak again after the May 2 debate. Other than that, we are left with these words: "I do not exclude anything."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Election over...at least for now

2007-04-22T18:28:00.000-07:00

There's not too much news news now that official tallies are being released and all candidates have reacted in some form or another to today's outcome. TF1 anchor Patrick Poivre d'Arvor has announced that Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal will debate face to face on May 2, the Wednesday before the May 6 vote.

Already a number of new polls have been released predicting the results of the second round. IFOP, CSA, and Ipsos all show Sarkozy winning by 7%-8%, although these numbers will only fluctuate in the coming days.

If you live in France you can find out the election results in your area at LeFigaro.com, where they have a "Le résultat de votre ville" search. Anyone can also follow the links on the righthand side of the page to Royal's and Sarkozy's websites, which each prominently feature their respective candidate's speech from earlier tonight.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal is endorsed, Le Pen and Bayrou wait

2007-04-22T12:28:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal picked up several endorsements from far-left candidates, including that of Marie-George Buffet, Dominique Voynet, and Arlette Laguiller. Here's what Buffet said:

"Lucid on the insufficiencies and ambiguities of the program of the socialist candidate, I call without hesitation all the men and all the women of the left, and all the democrats to vote and elect on May 6 Ségolène Royal."

The two heavyweights, UDF candidate Francois Bayrou and FN candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen have yet to officially endorse anyone. The president of the UDF said:

"We will listen to what the candidates qualified for the second round say and we will say 'how one ensures that the transformation of the French political life can be done?'"

Le Pen seemed almost defiant, claiming victory in the battle of ideas but then saying that his ability to apply the right solutions was stopped by the same candidates who seized his issues.

"We won the battle of the ideas, the nation and patriotism, immigration and the insecurity were put at the heart of the campaign by adversaries which, as lately as yesterday...This ideological victory is an irreversible asset of the National Front.

(But) I fear that the French were misused and I predict to them with sadness of the following days...Those who seized the ideas of the National Front, only prevented us from applying the true solutions to all the problems of France."

Strauss-Khan invites losers to join Royal

2007-04-22T11:38:00.000-07:00

Dominique Strauss-Khan, former socialist challenger to Segolene Royal, has called on all voters whose candidate did not win tonight to join Royal in the runoff.

"I feel in this first turn the hope of a revival (...) I believe that henceforth the victory by the revival is possible.

It is necessary that the second round, the victory with the second round of Ségolène Royal is not done solely on the rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy but on a will of change to build this house of the revival.

It is a call with all the voters who do not have their preferred candidate in the second round, those who were more on the left than Ségolène, those who were on the right and who want to build with her the revival which one needs.

Inside there is no agreement of party and of negotiation. There is simply Ségolène Royal who proposes a revival and it is necessary that those who want this revival can line up behind her."

Candidates begin to respond

2007-04-22T11:08:00.000-07:00

Now free speech is once again legal, so let's talk. The final tally will show Sarkozy in the upper 29%, Royal from 25%-26%, Bayrou about 18.5%, and Le Pen at roughly 11%. Hopefully we'll get some official responses from the campaigns.

According to France24, Socialist chief Francois Hollande has called for "a very large gathering around the pact of Segolene Royal." Her site is now featuring a "Disover in 7 min the 7 pillars of the presidential pact", and a live video feed from Melle.

Sarkozy's site has a live video feed as well, although my computer's completely stuck. Current PM Dominique de Villepin has responded, congratulating Sarkozy for his "excellent score", and saying that the high voter turnout "marks the vitality of our democracy."

I don't know what Bayrou's site is going for. All they have is a post that says he received 18%-19% of the vote and arrived in third place. It also says he will make a declaration later in the evening.

And finally, I don't see any changes or movement on the Le Pen site.

Results out, 2 weeks to go

2007-04-22T10:26:00.000-07:00

By now most unofficial results are out and barring any last minute upset, Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal will be going to the second round. Personally I hope that some of the overt skepticism of polls in the French media goes away; it is understandable considering the 2002 upset, but preliminary results this time around mirror the most recent polls quite closely. Actually, the biggest surprise seems to be Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was expected to do (possibly) as best or better than last time. At this point, it looks like polls overestimated him rather than the common belief that he was underestimated.

Obviously the Royal team would have liked to finish neck and neck with Sarkozy, but a very strong second is a decent consolation prize. Finally we'll have the opportunity to see the two major candidates debate face to face. That could possibly influence the May 6 vote much more than the SarkoSego results of this first round.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sarkozy and Royal win?

2007-04-22T09:30:00.000-07:00

Belga News Agency is reporting that UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Segolene Royal will be in the presidential runoff. No exact numbers yet.

You can see updates of the results at top right. I'm not going to publish them as posts right now because some of these may be agglomerated on French sites.

Huge turnout

2007-04-22T08:25:00.000-07:00

Apparently the French come out to vote as much as they protest. As of 5:00pm today (20 min ago), particpation was 73.87%, 15 points higher than 2002. The record for voter turnout was all the way back in 1965, with 84.8%. Any exit polls won't be out until roughly 6:00pm.

Update: According to Ipsos and IFOP, voter turnout might have been 87%, a new record.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Day in the life

2007-04-22T08:16:00.000-07:00

Good weather and a million newly registered voters may be helping turnout today, but according to Reuters there are several other novel incentives.

Incentives to vote included a puppet show near the northern city of Lille offering free tickets to those with a voters' card showing they had voted, and a cinema giving discounts to voters in the northern town of Saint-Omer...

Hotels have offered discounts to voters in a bid to counter the slump they usually see on election weekends, and food delivery firms such as caterers and pizza chains banked on a jump in business thanks to election night parties.

One catering firm, Premiere Etoile, offered a special dish for each main candidate -- a "sweet and feminine" poultry fricassee for Royal "with a touch of sourness", grilled lamb for Sarkozy "for carnivores who like intense flavours" and duck for centrist Francois Bayrou from his native southwestern France.

Several problems have been reported, such as polling stations being glued/nailed shut in Marseille and wariness with new electronic voting machines, but nothing too serious to influence the outcome. Unfortunately, democracy's choices do not seem to please everyone. Vinvent Brun, a 25 year-old from Strasbourg, was one of them.

"I decided when I got up this morning, based on my mood. I cast an empty ballot."

The World May Never Know...

2007-04-22T06:13:00.000-07:00

...what was on that ballot.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

All major candidates have voted

2007-04-22T04:44:00.000-07:00

More candidates have voted as the morning/afternoon has progressed.

At 11:30 Jean-Marie Le Pen showed up to vote without any family, telling reporters that he would spend the day "At home, I think, in my garden with the sun."

At around 12:30 both Segolene Royal and Francois Bayrou cast their ballots. Keeping to his traditional farmer image, Bayrou attended church before going to vote. Royal used her vote to do a little last minute campaigning, walking around, greeting, and shaking some hands.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Happy Earth Day...and Election Day too

2007-04-22T03:27:00.000-07:00

Welcome to today's game. Polling stations opened in France at 8:00am local time (2:00am EST) and are to remain open until either 6:00pm or 8:00pm depending on location. The first real event of the day came at 10:55, when Nicolas Sarkozy, accompanied by his wife Cecilia and two daughters, came to vote at the Edith-Gorce-Franklin School in Neuilly-sur-Seine, the same town Sarkozy where Sarkozy was elected mayor at age 22.

The other big news so far is voter turnout. As of noon today (30 min ago) participation was 31.21%, this is a large increase over 2002, when the same time produced only 21.4% turnout.

Anyway, not much to report now, but stay tuned for more.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

First day of voting over

2007-04-21T17:24:00.000-07:00

The first day of voting in France's overseas territories is now over. In all previous elections overseas territories voted on the same day as their homeland counterparts, but because of the time difference, the final results were already known in some places before voting even closed. This led to US-size abstention rates, 64.5% alone in Martinique in 2002.

So who has actually already voted? The islands of Saint Pierre and Miquelon, northeast of Canada, who together muster 5000 registered voters, opened voting stations at 8:00am local time. A more sizeable 656,500 registered voters were then given the chance to cast their ballots in Martinique, Guadeloupe, and French Guiana. Finally French Polynesia opened its doors, with a population (according to Wikipedia) of roughly 260,000.

Stuff to do while waiting

2007-04-21T12:37:00.000-07:00

It's still a long wait until tomorrow night (in France), so for any election watchers out there who need some reading material, here are good links to check out.

1. PBS/Frontline has done a 16 min piece on the current state of the French welfare state, entitled "France: The Precarious Generation -- Au revoir job security." They also have a general overview of this year's election and a quite indepth interview with Bruno Palier, a political scientist at France's Sciences Po (Sarkozy attended but did not graduate from that school). Not to be stereotypical, but Palier ends the interview with the profoundly French observation that "there is no reason to live if you're not optimistic." Honestly though, if you are curious about how France has gotten into the mess it is in, the interview and video are very illuminating.

2. The Council on Foreign Relations is also publishing some good material in anticipation of the election. Their Director of Europe Studies gives a pretty lucid interview for Americans who are just viewing this election for the first time, and an interactive timeline of Franco-American relations is helpful for Americans (and French) who forget that their countries are actually friends. The Council's always excellent publication Foreign Affairs has also reviewed Nicolas Sarkozy's book Testimony in the May/June edition. The review was actually done by The Economist's Paris Bureau Chief, and ends on an optimistic note:

"The real question is whether the less daring, more populist stance that Sarkozy has taken during the election camapign genuinely calls into question his commitment to the values and policies expressed in the pages of Testimony...The Sarkozy of Testimony is a blunter, tougher-talking politician than the man on the campaign trail. That one has been savvy with his voters. But the one who inhabits the pages of this compelling book may be closer to the real Nicolas Sarkozy."

3. Unfortunately there is somewhat of a media blackout in France because the state apparently fears that last minute info might influence voters (as if the coverage over the past months doesn't do the same?!). However, for those like me who cannot even watch over-regulated French TV if we wanted to, you can watch several news channels including France24 and BFM TV if you go to the site World Wide Internet TeleVision and scroll down to France.

Other than that, there's only one other thing to say to the candidates: good night and good luck.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Campaign closes, Wash Up

2007-04-21T03:04:00.000-07:00

Today all presidential campaigning has stopped and some overseas territories are beginning to vote. In lieu of polls or presidential statements, here's a rather funny article from The New York Times.

There is one French company that is tired of free publicity. It is Kärcher, which makes high-pressure washers used to clean dirt, graffiti and wear from building façades. Its products cleaned Mount Rushmore.

But “to Kärcher” has become a French political verb with explosive content. The leading presidential candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, coined the term two years ago when he went to the immigrant suburb of La Courneuve after a boy was killed by a stray bullet, and said he would clean out troublemakers there “with a Kärcher.” Mr. Sarkozy’s opponent on the far-right, Jean-Marie Le Pen, responded during a stop in the suburb of Argenteuil last week. “If some want to Kärcher-ize you, to exclude you, we want to help you get out of these ghettos,” he told people there.

Apparently the Kärcher company itself isn't too pleased with this free publicity, and has sent all 12 of this year's candidates a request to not use their company name. But this infamy doesn't seem to have hurt sales: in 2006 world revenue jumped 13%.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Le Pen beats Bayrou, SegoSarko near-equal

2007-04-20T16:48:00.000-07:00

A final CSA poll taken today shows, if anything, that there are no foregone conclusions in Sunday's vote. In the poll, National Front candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen finished at 16.5%, his highest in the past several months, and .5% above UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who up until this time has been considered the "third man" of the election. The CSA poll also showed Nicolas Sarkozy near equal with Segolene Royal, finishing 26.5% and 25.5% respectively.

What should we take form this? I'm afraid to say to much, considering it may be proved all wrong on Sunday night, but I think it is pretty safe to say that Bayrou will not present a very great threat to Royal. If common belief holds true, that Sarkozy is overestimated and Le Pen underestimated, there very well may be a three horse race, with both Sego, Sarko, and Le Pen finishing in the low 20%'s.

Another interesting question will be, if Bayoru falls flat, where do his votes go? This could ironically end up helping all three other major candidates, because he has amassed such a diverse coalition of supporters. But anything that helps Le Pen and Sarkozy can only threaten Royal, who for the sake of her party and the mental stability of France, cannot allow a repeat of 2002, when Le Pen beat out Socialist Lionel Jospin to enter the runoff.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Poll Wars

2007-04-20T13:38:00.000-07:00

According to French law, estimates of the final vote are not allowed to be published on the day before or the day of the election, meaning not until 8:00pm Sunday. The penalty for doing so is a fine up to 75,000 euros. Despite this, some bloggers originally voiced the intention to do disregard this, causing French media companies, including Le Monde, to warn their bloggers not to do so. However, this will give an edge to foreign media companies, notably from Belgium, who are promising to release their initial estimates before polls close in France.

Of course even if media companies were allowed to publish exit poll information, the closeness of the election could obscure the final tally. Just remember the night of 2000, when Gore was given Florida, then retracted, then Bush given Florida, then Bush declared president, and then Florida retracted again. Hopefully the lack of an electoral college will keep this election a bit more clear-cut.

Bayrou aims at Le Monde

2007-04-20T03:52:00.000-07:00

Yesterday the French paper Le Monde published an editorial entitled "Impératif démocratique", which called for the French to send Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal into the runoff.

April 22, 2007 cannot, should not resemble April 21, 2002...It is important that our "dear and old country" can, to the second turn, statement clearly where it wants to go; and comes to a conclusion about a certain idea of our future, of our life together. It is thus necessary, at the evening of the first turn, which are joined together the conditions of clear and great confrontation between two projects of society.

From this point of view, there are in the political offer available two options: that of Nicolas Sarkozy, claiming the irhgt and outgoing majority...it is necessary thus have to wish that the second, claiming left and that Ségolène Royal incarnates, is present at the second turn to ensure the chances of a true choice.

Obviously this did not bode well with UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who has made his campaign about a "third" centrist choice. Yesterday in at a press conference, Bayrou responded in the strongest of terms, lashing out at the two part monopoly.

I felt this leading article like a stab...a proof of the incredible collusion at the top of the State between the PS, UMP and the powers which support them...

What arrogance makes that, in our country, the powerful ones decided that once and for all it would have only these two parties, these two exhausted parties, these two parties which led us to the pit where we are, who would have the democratic right to participate in power?"

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Final rallies held

2007-04-19T18:17:00.000-07:00

Tonight almost all of this year's candidates held their final campaign rallies in anticipation of Sunday's first round ballot. Voting actually begins as early as Saturday for overseas territorties, during which time a polling blackout will begin.

Royal, whose gaffes on trips abroad during the campaign cost her candidacy some momentum, sought to inject some gravitas into her bid Thursday by bringing Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to speak at a rally in southern Toulouse. Spain's Socialist premier — the first major international leader to publicly take sides in the French election this year — was effusive in his support of Royal.

"Segolene incarnates personal impetuousness, a fresh character and optimism," Zapatero told an estimated 15,000 banner-waving supporters at the rally. "Segolene incarnates a project of transformation, democratization and modernization" he said.

Sarkozy's rally Thursday in the Mediterranean port city of Marseille also attracted thousands of enthusiastic supporters. His team also targeted undecided voters with a new promotional blitz, in which more than 20,000 supporters were handing out fliers and other freebies. It was hosting a ski race in the Alps, and games of petanque — French bowling — in Paris.

Is it just me or is Zapatero breaching internal poitics more blatantly than the US in Iraq? Anyway, Sarkozy's website has now transformed into "72 heures pour ganger!" (72 hours to win) mode, with a welcome video by Sarkozy and a blog "Dimanche Tout Devient Possible" (Sunday Everything is Possible", a play off his campaign slogan "Ensemble Tout Devient Possible." Roughly 30% of the French are still undecided, so any last effort should count.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Zapatero supports "Zapatera"

2007-04-19T11:01:00.000-07:00

In Toulouse today Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will publicly endorse fellow socialist Segolene Royal for the presidency. Segolene Royal was nicknamed "Zapatera" by the French media after winning in the hotly contested Poitou-Charentes region. That election, in April 2004, took place just one month after Zapatero's win in Spain, which was itself three days after the Madrid train bombings.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

No hanging chads, please

2007-04-19T05:19:00.000-07:00

The American expat Amerloque has a great overview of the French election procedure itself, including "les professions de foi", mailed to every voter before election day to describe candidates' positions, and the voting booth, which includes "a somewhat stentorian voice" that rings "A voté."

No candidate here in France can ever really say that the voters 'didn't know' about her or his message: all registered voters receive this package of professions de foi and it is simply up to them to become as informed as they desire. The French voter who genuinely wants information about the candidates and their platforms will take the necessary time to read and attempt to understand these professions. From Amerloque's experience, the information contained therein frequently contributes to animated discussions at the office: some candidates' words, phrases and positions can be examined and parsed in detail over several days – especially when they are at variance (sometimes significantly so !) with versions appearing in the media.

Amerloque also adds a 13 point list covering all the reasons a vote can be invalidated, including the obvious:

13. Envelopes containing no voting slip whatsoever are null and void.

And the downright odd:

11. The voting slip contains written insults of candidates or of other.

Polls tighten as campaign end nears

2007-04-19T04:00:00.000-07:00

With campaigns wrapping up soon and the first round this Sunday, voters are slowly but surely making up their minds. Ipsos' daily poll, now with information from April 17-18, says that the "Fermature du choix", or the number of people who will not change their minds in the first round, has jumped to 70%. It had been hovering at around 60% until several days ago.

But as voters are making their choices, it appears as of now that UDF candidate Francois Bayoru may find himself the man left out in the cold instead of his preferred "third man." A new BVA poll puts Sarkozy at 29% and Royal at 25%, but shows Bayrou falling to 15%, almost equal with Le Pen's 13%.

Worse yet, it also highlights the instability in Bayrou's declared support. According to the poll, a full 47% of Bayrou voters say they may change their mind, compared to only roughly 20% for the other main contenders. Frankly this was not unexpected, and the conventional wisdom held that unless Bayrou could become a legitimate substitute for Royal, his support would fade as the election neared. Conventional wisdom also keeps reminding us that Le Pen is likely underestimated in the polls, although by how much is anyone's guess.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Le Pen and Cecilia

2007-04-19T03:52:00.000-07:00

Jean-Marie Le Pen just took campaigning to a new low when he suggested that Nicolas Sarkozy is having new marital problems with his wife Cecilia. The Sarkozys endured an embarrassing public separation several years ago, in which she left for another man in New York, although they did eventually reunite. Cecilia has since taken an active if behind-the-scenes role in her husband's campaign.

With just four days to go before the first round of elections, the leader of the Front National alleged that "Paris is abuzz" with rumours about the couple.

"I am pretty surprised that the press is not curious these days about Mrs Sarkozy, who could become France's first lady," Mr Le Pen said in a radio interview.

It would be a sign of "normal curiosity", he said, for the press to take an interest. He did not give any details of the couple's alleged problems.

(...)

"I see that reverential fear sparks caution in people who usually have no qualms in launching rumours, even baseless ones," Mr Le Pen told RMC radio and BFM-TVM television.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Zidane or Segolene

2007-04-18T17:50:00.000-07:00

Election day may be fast approaching, but that doesn't mean only polls and politicking. Not only has this election spawned a massive online political presence, but also online comedy, as this Zidane=Royal game conclusively proves. I'm not endorsing this as a campaign tactic for Royal, although if things start to go south, it might be worth a try.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Sego goes Shopping

2007-04-18T13:31:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal went shopping in a Parisian supermarket today, where she seized the occasion to denounce corporate profits and executive bonuses, aiming especially at Daniel Bernard, who received a huge retirement sum after leaving supermarket chain Carrefour.

Royal also pledged her solidarity with female workers, saying that:

Female wage-earning, it is the proletariat of today, and their concerns are not taken into account...It is my responsibility to react."

This is part of a broader pattern reported by the International Herald Tribune, in which Royal is appealing directly to female voters. Just this Sunday she told a crowd in Achicourt:

"I want to address myself to the women...I need the women's vote...(write) a new page in the history of France...The entire world is watching you."

Whatever the historical implications, many commentators are balking at the tactic:

It's the wrong strategy, totally counterproductive," said Michèle Fitoussi, one of France's leading social commentators and a columnist at French Elle magazine. "Women are going to vote for Ségolène because they believe she's most qualified to be president, not because she's a woman. It's an insult to our intelligence to ask us to do such a thing."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Bettors skip races, politics

2007-04-18T04:34:00.000-07:00

According to Bloomberg News, this year's French election has attracted $339,000 worth of wagers so far at the two largest British bookmakers, "more than five times the level in the previous election in 2002."

Mr. Sarkozy, picking up an endorsement from Britain's Economist magazine, is gaining momentum heading into the April 22 first round. William Hill's odds on him narrowed in the past week from 1–2. Odds on Ms. Royal lengthened from 11–4.

At the same time, odds on centrist Francois Bayrou have narrowed to 9–2 from 11–2. Anti-immigrant leader Jean-Marie Le Pen remains the long shot at 50–1, down from 80–1.

And the largest bets? A $6000 wager at William Hill for Sarkozy, and a separate $12,000 bet for Sarkozy at Ladbrokes from "a London-based businessman with a French-sounding name." Let's hope Sarkozy didn't make any any wagers when he was visiting Blair several months ago.

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Alliance proposal heats up

2007-04-18T04:20:00.000-07:00

Today UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, who welcomed former Socialist PM Michel Rocard's idea of a UDF-PS alliance, told reporters that he had dined with Rocard before the proposal hit the press.

Socialist and former Royal challenger Dominique Strauss-Khan is also making noise over this issue, stating that the alliance proposal is irrelevant.

"All that was said about the alliance between the Socialist Party and the UDF is irrelevant, when one is on the left, on votes on the left."

However, Strauss-Khan did say he would be willing to be prime minister under Francois Bayrou, so long as the Socialist Party held the majority in the French National Assembly.

"A Prime Minister, under the 5th Republic, is somebody who has a majority. Therefore, if there is no socialist majority within the French National Assembly, there is not a Socialist Prime Minister."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Royal buoyed, alludes to Obama

2007-04-17T18:24:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has seen fortunes turn in her favor over the last several days of the campaign, with polls showing Nicolas Sarkozy's lead falling in the first round and their difference closing in the second. In an interview that will appear tomorrow, Royal reflected this late optimism, even echoing Barack Obama's trademark "audacity of hope."

"I am trustful. I call for a useful, positive vote. So that the French say: It is is good, we are content, we have a super president of Republic who will give again the pride to France, who will regulate the problems.

"(I) request from the French a vote of audacity. Me, I am a promise of reassured audacity.

There are still 17 million undecided voters. They are reflecting. I see the mark of a requirement there. What I propose, it is to reform France without maltreating, to reconcile solidarity, individual responsability and economic efficiency."

If Royal was (un)intentionally alluding to a Democratic counterpart across the pond, Nicolas Sarkozy was sounding downright evangelical, repeating in two interviews the values of Europe's Christian values.

"Christianity saw being born our nation. It took part in the greatest hours of its history, and also sometimes with its dramas. It covered our territory of churches, cathedrals, monuments...immense inheritance of cultural, moral, intellectual and spiritual values."

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France

Follow candidates across France

2007-04-17T07:59:00.000-07:00

France is by no means the largest country in the world, but it may have the most presidential candidates. And with only days to go before the first round, all 12 candidates are rapidly crisscrossing the nation to gather votes.

Luckily, the French paper Le Figaro is providing an online/interactive map that shows the current location of each candidate and what he or she is doing there. Only one question remains: Where's Waldo?

Segolene gets university support

2007-04-17T07:22:00.000-07:00

Socialist candidate Segolene Royal picked up the endorsement of 14 university presidents, who jointly released their support in a statement today.

"Us, presidents and former presidents of the universities, let us call upon Ségolène Royal so that she resolutely engages the country from the point of view of a revival of the universities.

She is the only one capable of incarnating today the hope of a necessary change of course, far from the peremptory injunctions of the past and of the arrogances of the present."

They included some harsh words for UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, saying that:

Who can believe one moment the Pharaonic promises of a candidate who aligns billions of new expenditure all while committing himself to reducing at the same time the national debt...

Who can believe in the revival of scientific employment whereas one advances once again the objective of a drastic reduction of civils servant manpower?"

Technorati tags: Ségolène Royal, Segolene Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Bayrou, UMP, PS, politics, politique, présidentielle, actualité, news, France